IISS | Erik Green, Olivia Parker, Wira Ejau, Morgan Michaels, Meia Nouwens
China's strategic response to the US-Israel war against Iran has been a pragmatic balancing act, driven by economic interests and the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ambitions in the Middle East and the Global South. While China's economy has shown resilience against initial supply-chain disruptions, benefiting from diverted US assets and promoting an alternative world order, internal discussions reveal concerns regarding long-term supply chain vulnerabilities and its image as a neutral Global South leader. Beijing has maintained a hedging approach, prioritizing its five principles of peaceful co-existence and enhancing national self-reliance rather than assuming a prominent mediating role. Economic vulnerabilities, particularly concerning critical chemical imports from Iran, have prompted measures like banning sulphuric acid exports. Looking ahead, China aims to strengthen economic resilience and diversify energy dependencies by leveraging relationships with Russia and other oil-producing states through multilateral platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This approach underscores a continued focus on domestic and national interests, suggesting pragmatism will likely supersede decisive mediation in future conflicts, especially those outside its immediate neighborhood.
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