Institute for Security and Development Policy | John S. Van Oudenaren
China's foreign policy under Xi Jinping has undergone a significant, albeit gradual, transformation from a regionally concentrated approach in East Asia to an assertive global strategy, directly challenging established U.S. leadership. South Asia has emerged as a central theater in this strategic pivot, largely due to its integral role within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which effectively extends Beijing's geopolitical and economic influence far beyond its immediate neighborhood. Several critical factors underscore the region's importance: South Asia's strategic geography is indispensable for China's broader connectivity and security objectives. Moreover, the complex power dynamics within the region, characterized by India's traditional dominance alongside the rising ambitions of states like Pakistan and Bangladesh, present Beijing with strategic opportunities to exploit existing tensions and expand its footprint. The notable absence of cohesive regional institutions, unlike the robust ASEAN framework, further enables China to cultivate influence through a network of overlapping, Sino-centric multilateral arrangements. This expanding engagement is normatively underpinned by a shared narrative of a rising Global South, providing a legitimate basis for deeper cooperation between China and various South Asian nations.
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