16 May 2026

The Trump–Xi summit: can progress be made on Iran?

Chatham House | Bronwen Maddox
A prospective summit between former US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would likely feature discussions on the complex issue of Iran, particularly concerning its nuclear program and regional activities. The central question revolves around the potential for meaningful progress, given the divergent interests and approaches of Washington and Beijing towards Tehran. US policy under a potential Trump administration might seek China's leverage to pressure Iran, possibly in exchange for concessions on other bilateral issues. China, while a signatory to the JCPOA, has maintained economic ties with Iran and often advocates for diplomatic solutions, potentially positioning itself as a mediator or a counterweight to US unilateralism. Any joint US-China initiative on Iran would represent a significant shift in global diplomacy, impacting Middle Eastern stability and the broader non-proliferation regime. However, the historical complexities of US-China relations and their respective strategic priorities suggest that achieving substantial breakthroughs on Iran would be highly challenging, requiring intricate negotiations and a willingness to compromise from both sides. This hypothetical summit underscores the critical role of great power diplomacy in addressing persistent international security challenges.

No comments: