The United States' electricity grid is projected to add approximately 82 gigawatts (GW) of net available capacity by 2030, comprising 33 GW from front-of-the-meter (FTM) resources and 49 GW from behind-the-meter (BTM) resources, according to RAND research. This assessment accounts for project completion rates, retirements, and resource reliability, translating planned additions into reliable capacity estimates. The anticipated growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is substantial, rapid, and geographically concentrated, posing significant challenges to grid adequacy. While most FTM additions are concentrated in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), BTM capacity is more evenly distributed, playing a crucial role in reducing peak grid demand. Policymakers must prioritize locational adequacy, especially in regions with limited net capacity additions, and incorporate realistic project assessments and diversified resource portfolios to manage the uncertainty of future large-load growth. Further research is needed to refine estimates by including transmission expansion scenarios and more granular locational data.
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