RAND Corporation | Abby Doll, Karl P. Mueller
The intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China in artificial intelligence (AI) development raises significant instability risks, including the potential for either nation to employ military force or cyber warfare to disrupt the other's AI ecosystem. This technological competition, particularly concerning the race to artificial general intelligence (AGI), could prompt preventive actions aimed at securing a lead or preventing a rival from achieving AGI first. RAND's research team has developed and initiated a game called Breakwater to analyze these dynamics. Breakwater explores the conditions under which competitors might resort to such preventive measures, how perceptions of AI development trajectories influence strategic behavior and risk tolerance, and the factors that contribute to the stabilization or destabilization of the competition. Anticipating and managing these potential escalatory pathways is critical for national security and technology policymakers to avert armed conflict and catastrophic outcomes. This paper provides an overview of the game design and initial observations.
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