Pages

31 July 2020

After the End of the 'Pink Tide,' What’s Next for South America?


In early 2019, it seemed as if the “pink tide” of leftist governments that swept across Latin America in the early 2000s had all but retreated. The wave of conservative governments that replaced them owed their rise in part to the region’s economic difficulties following the end of a decade-long commodities boom in 2014. But they also took advantage of the failure by many of the leftist leaders to translate that economic boom into sustainable advances for the lower and middle classes. The election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil in 2018, after a campaign spent vilifying women as well as marginalized and indigenous communities, was a particular blow to the region’s progressives.

More recently, the South American left has shown signs of a revival. Argentina’s moderate-left Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernandez, ousted the market-friendly incumbent, Mauricio Macri, in that country’s presidential election in October 2019. Macri had won office in 2015 pledging to remedy the economic missteps of his Peronist predecessor, but his austerity measures and heavy borrowing triggered an economic crisis that cost him the presidency. And massive protests in Ecuador and Chile, also in October 2019, forced the governments in those countries to backtrack on austerity measures, calling into question in the case of Chile the country’s longstanding neoliberal economic model.


Nevertheless, the fall in early November of Bolivian President Evo Morales after a disputed election left Venezuela’s regime as the last survivor of South America’s earlier leftist transformation. But the Bolivarian revolution that began under former President Hugo Chavez has transformed into an economic and humanitarian disaster under his successor, Nicolas Maduro. Maduro managed to eke out reelection in 2018 amid complaints of voting irregularities. Much of the region, with Washington’s backing, coalesced around an effort to push him from office by supporting opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country’s legitimate president, but the attempt to dislodge Maduro has since flagged.

Major advances in the region are also in danger. Colombia’s fragile peace process faltered after President Ivan Duque’s hostility to the deal resulted in half-hearted implementation of its measures. Meanwhile, the illicit drug trade across the region is booming, as is organized crime, even as corruption continues to flourish. Now the coronavirus pandemic has added another immense challenge to the region’s public health systems and economies, with implications for leaders, like Bolsonaro, who failed to take the threat seriously.

Prior to the pandemic, Russia and China sought to deepen trade ties with countries across the region. America, threatened by Moscow and Beijing’s newfound interest, has accused them of propping up corrupt governments and is taking steps to shore up its own partnerships in South America.

No comments:

Post a Comment