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20 April 2022

The Dilemma at the Heart of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO Membership Bids

CHRISTOPHER S. CHIVVIS

Mock attacks by Russian bombers in the middle of the night. Mysterious mini-submarines appearing in the waters outside Stockholm. A small private island in the southern Gulf of Bothnia bristling with satellite antennae and a heliport.

For years, once-neutral Sweden and Finland have leaned toward NATO after provocations like these from Russia, but their larger eastern neighbor’s war on Ukraine turbo-boosted their drive to join the alliance. Finnish president Sauli Niinistö visited the United States only a week after Russia’s invasion, presumably to discuss the possibility. Public opinion in both countries looks more and more favorable to NATO membership, and NATO’s secretary general recently said the two countries would be welcomed with open arms. The NATO summit planned for June would be the natural moment to launch the process, although it might happen even sooner.

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