Masoud Kazemzadeh
The joint efforts by the United States and Israel to identify Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s location and kill him on February 28, 2026, were brilliant. These great intelligence and military successes must be transformed into political success. No one leader or group has enough capability or support to take power in Iran and establish a legitimate and stable political system – and both the U.S. and Israeli governments appear to be fully aware of this. This brilliant success could easily turn into disaster if the U.S. and or Israel pursue certain policies. In this article, I argue that there are policies that have a good likelihood of producing a legitimate and stable democracy in Iran.
Scenario 1. Déjà vu
If the U.S. and Israel stop the military campaign too soon, the remnants of the regime could easily reconstitute the system. It is not clear whether the fundamentalist successors would return to the fundamentalist regime’s policies as soon as they believe it would be safe to do so, or make a fundamental change in their foreign or domestic policies.
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