The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in February 2026, following Israel's 12-day war in June 2025, failed to collapse the Islamic Republic, instead transforming it into a more resilient and nationalistic state. Initial U.S. expectations of a quick victory and regime change proved unattainable, as Iran retained military capacity and avoided popular uprising despite extensive bombing and a naval blockade.
A quiet succession saw a new generation of IRGC commanders and civilian security officials, hardened by the Iran-Iraq War and post-revolutionary Iran, assume key decision-making roles. These pragmatic nationalists, unlike their predecessors, separated revolutionary ideology from statecraft, focusing on national defense and strategic patience. Iran rapidly adapted its military, reorganizing forces into a decentralized, guerrilla-like structure and dispersing missile launchers. It deployed drone swarms to overwhelm U.S. radar and air defenses, inflicting heavy damage on 16 U.S. bases and compelling the United States to abandon Camp Victory in Baghdad. By asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz and targeting energy infrastructure, Iran imposed significant costs on global markets, creating a new balance of power and eroding trust between Gulf states and Washington.
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