China is pursuing its interests in the Indo-Pacific through a long-term strategy of gradually shifting the regional status quo, rather than immediate displacement of the United States. This approach involves naval modernisation, grey-zone tactics, and a multi-force coercion toolkit to normalize its presence. Beijing's campaign includes increased military activity, frequent resupply and medical visits to regional ports, regular presence of surveillance ships, and integrating naval functions into dual-use logistics facilities, alongside a larger role for the China Coast Guard.
This "salami slicing" tactic, similar to its South China Sea strategy, aims to make China's military presence routine and expected. While not deliberately aggressive, this normalisation increases the risk of incidents and escalation as regional powers respond with increased operations. Australia and its partners must understand this pattern, operate effectively, and limit risks. An accelerated Chinese campaign would necessitate a more active strategy, emphasizing partnership building, domestic resilience, sustained regional engagement, persistent presence, intelligence sharing, and joint exercises to manage risk and maintain influence.
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