Michael Martin
Four years on, Myanmar’s civil war has spread to all 14 regions and states, as well as the major cities of Mandalay, Naypyidaw, and Yangon. According to the analysis of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, opposition groups have effective control over 34 percent of the country’s landmass,
including all but one of the border townships. Townships under opposition control form a crescent that arcs from Rakhine State in the west, through Chin State, Sagaing Region, across Kachin State, and into Shan State in the east. Almost all of the cross-border towns with neighboring Bangladesh, China, India, and Thailand are under the administration of opposition forces.
The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and its affiliated People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) have reportedly captured more than 300 military installations and 15 towns in Kachin State, Shan State, or Sagaing Region since the 2021 coup. The KIA and its allies have also taken control of all but one of the border crossings into China. In addition, they control most of Kachin’s valuable mining region, including its rare earth mines.
The KIA’s latest military offensive is Bhamo, a strategically important city in eastern Kachin State. If the KIA can capture Bhamo, it will effectively control all of eastern Kachin State. Myanmar’s military junta has reinforced its estimated 3,000 troops in Bhamo; it’s also conducting up to 50 airstrikes each day to help defend the city. In addition, the junta has launched a counteroffensive in an attempt to retake control of some of Myanmar’s valuable jade mines.
The People’s Republic of China has stepped up its military assistance to Myanmar’s military junta, in part to help the defense of Bhamo. China is apparently concerned that the loss of Bhamo will significantly weaken the junta and could lead to another state—in addition to Chin State and Rakhine State—falling under the control of the anti-junta opposition.
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