Joe Keary
A Chinese attempt at blockading or invading Taiwan in 2026 is unlikely. Instead, Beijing is likely to persist with its toolkit of coercive actions to erode Taiwan’s will and narrow its strategic options.
President Xi Jinping’s decision on whether to attempt to take control of the island democracy is driven by his own assessment of risk. While China’s military capabilities advanced rapidly in 2025, domestic and international considerations likely continue to complicate the case for using force against Taiwan.
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