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17 February 2026

Iran’s Divided Opposition

Sanam Vakil and Alex Vatanka

Whenever Iran is shaken by nationwide protests, as it was just last month, analysts and activists are consumed by the same two questions: Will the country’s regime finally fall, and what will come next if it does? Answers abound. Some analysts think that the country’s leadership is surprisingly secure and that the regime can withstand more demonstrations. Some believe it will collapse, only to be followed by another dictatorship under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the most politically powerful branch of the country’s armed forces. Others are more optimistic, arguing that the entire system will go down

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