Thomas Graham
Europe fears Russia could launch another attack within five years. It has good reason for vigilance: Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened countries that support Ukraine. Weighing against a deliberate attack, however, are serious domestic and foreign challenges for Russia, including the need to revitalize the nonmilitary segment of its economy, increase investment in advanced technologies, reintegrate hundreds of thousands of veterans into civilian life, reconstruct the devastated Ukrainian land it has seized, and rebuild its position in the former Soviet space. The Kremlin’s desire to normalize relations with the United States to offset Russia’s excessive reliance on China makes a deliberate attack even less likely. Those objective restraints should temper Putin’s ambitions, but they cannot eliminate the danger. Europe’s Russia policy should rest on two pillars: deterrence and dialogue. With sustained investment in deterrence and dialogue, and a clear-eyed understanding of the constraints Russia faces, Europe could use the next five years to consolidate a competitive, uneasy, but stable coexistence with Russia.
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