2 March 2026

Regime Change in Cuba Appeals to Trump but Carries Risks

Michael Crowley

With a U.S. chokehold pushing Cuba’s economy toward potential collapse, President Trump is hoping to reach a deal with the island’s communist government to avoid chaos even if it means the leadership change long sought by many of his close allies has to wait.

Instead, Mr. Trump appears to be pursuing a version of his approach to Venezuela, whose leftist government remained in power after U.S. troops captured its president, Nicolás Maduro, in January.

On Wednesday, Cuban border guards shot and killed four Cuban nationals who departed from the United States as they approached the island’s coast in a boat. It is unclear whether the episode will affect the Trump administration’s plans.

After years of calling for Venezuela’s opposition leaders to take power, Mr. Trump has cooperated with Mr. Maduro’s successor to gain American access to the country’s oil, leaving questions about a political transition for later.

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