Liana Fix, Benjamin Harris
As peace negotiations continue between Russia and Ukraine, Europe should prepare for Russia to step out of the “gray zone” of hybrid warfare activities toward more overt attacks as part of a pressure strategy on Europeans. With transatlantic trust at a historic low, Russia could use the window of opportunity and decide to conduct low-level conventional provocations against European states, for example by using military drones against civilian targets, to further undermine the alliance. Europe needs to prepare to manage such a crisis on its own, without (or with less of) its traditional U.S. backing.
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