SETH J. FRANTZMAN
It turns out that instead of great expectations, the region may have gotten the sum of all fears. Just after three in the morning, sirens sounded across Israel, and Israel’s Defense Minister announced a preemptive strike against Iran. His office said that a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population was expected.
Israel and Iran traded blows in 2024. In two instances, Iran sent hundreds of missiles and drones to attack Israel. Israel also retaliated in limited precision strikes against air defenses. This was a curtain raiser on the capabilities of both countries. Israel has shown it can launch air raids across thousands of miles to strike the Houthis.
Iran has proxies in Iraq, a group of militias called the Popular Mobilization Forces. It also has the Houthis in Yemen. Its other proxies, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, are much weaker than in the past due to the war in Gaza and Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah in 2024. Nevertheless, Iran has many capabilities. It also has friends such as Russia and China who will not want to see Iran weakened or humiliated.
Iran was expected to go into Sunday’s meeting with its head held high. It was angry about a resolution at the e International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and had threatened to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT. It also said it would establish a new facility for its nuclear program.
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