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18 January 2026

Canada’s China Gambit: Strategic Fantasy Meets Geopolitical Reality

Stephen Nagy

Here’s the reality: diversifying economic relationships is prudent policy, but the notion Canada could meaningfully balance American pressure through Chinese partnership is strategically questionable and empirically unsound. In fact, Canada’s relationship with its southern neighbor runs far too deep, China presents an unreliable alternative, and Canada’s capacity for broader global engagement is limited.

A Relationship Greater than any Single Government

The scale and depth of the Canada-US bilateral relationship defy comparison. Over $900 billion in annual trade flows across the world’s longest undefended border. Integrated continental defense architecture—formalized through NORAD and deepened through decades of intelligence sharing—forged irreplicable institutional bonds. What’s more, hundreds of thousands of informal connections between businesses, universities, civil society organizations, and families transcend any single government’s policy preferences.

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