It would now be wise to assume China’s Xi is going to move against Taiwan – this is how it will happen

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Make no mistake, Wednesday’s “victory” parade in Beijing was the most significant event since Xi Jinping came to power in China in 2013. It was both a triumph and a prelude; the triumph of military might and the prelude to using it.

The Chinese leader did not don a uniform. Instead, he favoured a plain Mao-style outfit (of distinctive martial cut), in contrast to most of his suited guests overlooking Tiananmen Square.

This was the new China at its most militant. Nuclear missiles, drones, advanced weapons of all kinds, thousands of regimented troops marching in tight precision. Much has been written about it as a display of pride. It is now time to consider intention.

The honoured guests were the Russian president Vladimir Putin and the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. With Xi, they made a trio of autocrats, unmistakably identified as the key players of the day by the Chinese media.

All three are hardened survivors. Two of them, Putin and Kim, are steeped in blood. In the Chinese system, there is no longer any need to eliminate opponents physically. But Xi did not hesitate to decimate the military, purging defence ministers, generals and staff officers. The dismissal of his foreign minister in a spy scandal seemed a mere afterthought by contrast.

One wonders whether, over their cups of tea, the Chinese and Russian leaders exchanged ideas about the necessity of purges. For Putin, the spectre of Yevgeny Prigozhin, rebel leader of the Wagner Group, who died in a mid-air explosion, has vanished from his calculations.

As for the ever-smiling Kim Jong Un, he lives with the knowledge that he executed his own uncle, Jang Song Thaek, after a reported tip-off from China that Jang was plotting against him. Kim’s unfortunate relative was tied to a scaffold in front of an audience of cadres and shredded by an anti-aircraft gun.

Nothing in Xi’s biography suggests that he enjoys cruelty or is personally ruthless. But he does wield power in a way that rivals Stalin in purpose. It would now be wise to assume that he is, in fact, going to move against Taiwan.