The United States, two months after Operation Epic Fury, faces Iran's continued defiance despite a military defeat and a deal on the table. Tehran is testing Washington's patience by edging toward escalation, threatening to seal the Strait and striking Kuwait with a missile, prompting a U.S. cease-fire violation charge.
This situation presents a false choice between renewed war and passive waiting, both detrimental to Epic Fury's gains. Instead, Phase II requires calibrated, reversible force targeting the IRGC's commercial networks—its true center of gravity—including shipping, energy, logistics, and sanctions-evasion. This pressure, explicitly reversible, would darken parts of Iran's commercial empire weekly until a settlement is signed, allowing normal shipping to resume under agreed monitoring. This 'reversible deterrence' challenges the assumption of U.S. military self-deterrence, demonstrating a capacity to use force decisively yet controllably to alter adversary behavior, a lesson for Beijing and future adversaries.
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