The ongoing "Operation Epic Fury" in Iran reveals the significant limitations of hard power and the chaos from a weakening rules-based international system. The conflict, starting February 28, has made reopening the Strait of Hormuz a central issue, with U.S. President Donald Trump claiming 100 million barrels of oil were secretly transited.
Ships now sail "dark" through the Strait, a tactic previously used by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran to evade sanctions. This situation may lead to tolls or "environment fees" on vessels, potentially becoming a contagious deterrence model for other countries controlling strategic passages. Despite a massive U.S. strike campaign damaging Iran's military, Iran's inexpensive drones, mines, and missiles have disrupted critical waterways and U.S. assets, including an Apache helicopter hit by an Iranian drone. The conflict also tests U.S. alliances, as host countries like Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have become targets, suffering infrastructure attacks. Six U.S. servicemembers died in a strike on Kuwait’s Shuaiba port. Allies are now hedging bets, potentially inviting other powers or seeking accommodations with Iran, threatening diminished U.S. influence.
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