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12 April 2014

HISTORIC AFGHAN POLLS: PEOPLE’S REBUFF TO THE TALIBAN – ANALYSIS


By C Uday Bhaskar

Afghanistan went to the polls on a rainy Saturday, April 5 , amidst considerable uncertainty, visible enthusiasm and deep anxiety about the violence and disruption that the Taliban had threatened. Yet the stoic determination of the Afghan electorate prevailed, and notwithstanding pockets of violence and reports of many voters being turned away, more than seven million voters exercised their franchise – which is more than 50 percent of the estimated 12 million eligible voters. This by itself is a strong rebuff to the Taliban who have described the election as a fraud engineered by the hated US and its Western allies.

Yes, there was violence and bloodshed despite the robust security arrangements that saw as many as 350,000 Afghan security and police personnel deployed to oversee the election. Prior to the polls, a German photojournalist was killed, ironically by a police official, and on the actual polling day some areas reported violent disruption and attacks. Afghan Interior Minister Omar Daudzai stated that four civilians, nine police and seven soldiers had been killed in violence during election day but also added that many attacks had been thwarted.

The elections were a long-drawn process with a total of eight candidates in the fray to replace President Hamid Karzai. However, among them only three are seen as serious contenders for the hot seat in Kabul. They include Abdullah Abdullah – a Tajik leader and former foreign minister and the second best known name in Afghan politics; Zalmai Rassoul – a former foreign minister and national security adviser and perceived to be Karzai’s candidate; and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai – a former finance minister and a respected technocrat but with a limited political base.

As per the election schedule, counting of votes will be completed by April 20 and preliminary results are expected by the 24th. However, none of the three top aspirants are expected to obtain more than the required 50 percent of vote to declare a clear winner, and as in the last 2009 election many complaints are expected about booth capturing and invalid votes. The review period will go on till April 27 and final results are expected only on May 14. And if the predicted result occurs, meaning that no candidate receives more than 50 percent, then a run-off will be held on May 28 and the final result can go into June-July.Thus, this will be a very long process and the Saturday election is only the first step.

Yet, what is extraordinary is the manner in which the common Afghan voter and the women in particular have defied the Taliban threat and demonstrated both courage and conviction in the democratic process and the power of the ballot over the bullet. There are many complex challenges that the new president in Kabul and his government will have to address, and none more urgent than the physical security of the citizens and the precarious fiscal-cum-economic health of the nation.

At the politico-diplomatic level, the new team in Kabul will have to take a call on the nature of the relationship with the USA, which had become very strained and brittle in the latter years of President Karzai. Concluding the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) will be on top of the agenda, since the US will not keep its troops in Afghanistan minus this agreement and the new government in Kabul cannot afford to have zero US military presence in its first year in office given the complexity of the security challenges.

The key interlocutor for the security and stability of Afghanistan is Pakistan, and the role being played by the Pakistani military intelligence – the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its affiliates who either control or influence the militant groups across the Durrand Line. Currently, the Nawaz Sharif government in Pakistan is engaged in some very opaque peace deals with the Pakistan Taliban or Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and astute observers aver that Islamabad is making a familiar Faustian bargain. The Pakistan Taliban, it appears, is being appeased so that its constituency in Afghanistan can further the Islamabad- supported right-wing ideology and agenda. Paradoxically, these furtive deals with the Taliban are being negotiated by the civilian government in Islamabad despite the reservations of the Army HQ in Rawalpindi, and this when the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in Pakistan was commemorating the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto at the hands of the Taliban.

An objective editorial in leading Pakistani daily, the Daily Times (April 4), merits extensive citation, wherein it candidly noted: “If this is how things are being dealt with, the expectation that Pakistan would eventually distance itself from Afghanistan’s internal politics seems more distant than ever. It does not seem we are sincere to the idea of an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned solution. It is turning out that the assurances we have been giving to the international audience of our intent to first put our house in order – messed up because of our fingers in the Afghan pie, were mere rhetoric. It now also seems the lessons we should have learnt about the homegrown terrorism that has literally torn the country apart have quickly been forgotten in the renewed push for a (Taliban) government in Kabul of our choice. As the time draws near for the US-led NATO forces’ withdrawal from the region, our policy of intervention through proxies in Afghanistan is gaining traction. Deflecting the TTP’s attention from Pakistan by getting them engaged in Afghan affairs expects us to allow the organization to retain control over the sanctuaries established to recruit, train and export terrorists across the border. So instead of getting rid of the terrorists we are helping them to entrench themselves deeper.”

For India, this contradictory policy pattern of Islamabad is both well-known and cause for some concern. Supporting right-wing Islamist ideology that distorts religious tenets to further obscurantist policies, including the shooting of young Malalas for daring to go to school, has eaten into the entrails of the Pakistani state and large sections of its society. Nurturing such groups in Afghanistan to ostensibly protect Pakistan’s interests is deeply inimical to the kind of progress and stability that Kabul is seeking to enable through the democratic process.

Against this backdrop, the Saturday election is a commendable demonstration of the determination and grit of the Afghan people in the face of severe odds. The sub text in a rain-drenched Kabul is that the blood and treasure that has been poured into Afghanistan after the enormity of 9/11 will not be in vain. The new leaders of Afghanistan will have an onerous task ahead of them.

(C Uday Bhaskar is Distinguished Fellow at the Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at cudaybhaskar@spsindia.in)

This article appeared at South Asia Monitor and is reprinted with permission.

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