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20 September 2014

India’s Strategic Dilemmas in restructuring its Relations with China

By Dr Subhash Kapila
17-Sept-2014


Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ongoing visit to India much hyped by China apologists/lobbyists in India is unlikely to obliterate the decades of “Strategic Distrust” heaped in layers of political and strategic adversarial acts on India.

Therein get stuck the strategic dilemmas of Prime Minister Modi who by more than justified effusiveness is attempting to add rainbow hues on the chances of success of the Chinese President’s visit to India. He seems to have been egged-on by strategic analysts and opinion moulders who tend to see and judge China not by China’s demonstrated adversarial actions against India but craft policy recommendations arising from what their personal hopes that China would unfold its political and strategic moves as pr their perceptions. Such is their perceptional blindness that some go to the extent of advocating Indian compromises by India on the boundary disputes without any matching responses from the Chinese leadership.

Even at this moment as the Chinese President sets foot on Indian soil, Chinese soldier’s boots are persisting in stamping their aggressive footprints on Indian soil in Eastern Ladakh unapologetically. Is this the Chinese President’s style of political signalling to India that on issues of strategic concern to India, China could not care less? Is it not a reaffirmation of China’s proven style of dealing with India of ceaselessly being “insensitive” to India’s strategic sensitivities? Is China similarly empowered to issue warnings to India on its oil prospecting in Vietnam’s waters? Is India a tributary state of China? China has been so led to believe by succeeding Indian governments with their pussy-footing on China.

Contextually against such a reality-check does any optimism exist for Prime Minister Modi to resort to personal or national moves of deference to China during the Chinese President’s ongoing visit to India?

Today’s newspapers gave prominence to Prime Minister Modi’s statements that when dealing with China it is the “inches” that possibly could add-up to “miles”. Implicit in this is the Prime Minister’s caution that no spectacular successes can be expected from the Chinese President’s visit to India. The danger is that historically, China has gobbled up Indian Territory in hundreds of miles while Indian political leaderships and their advisers were focussing on inches on maps.

Much of the Indian hype at multiple levels is concentrated on the economic ‘goodies’ that the Chinese President is carrying for India and which China seems to have subtly given out into the Indian public domain. India is all excited about it and insidious comparisons are made as to what PM Modi gained from Japan. However, nobody in India has questioned as to what ‘strategic goodies’ the Chinese President is carrying for India to facilitate a “Game changer” dice being thrown into the China-India strategic game-puzzle?

The strategic reality to which the Indian Prime Minister should not be oblivious to is that “economics” despite 100 billion dollars in the next five years cannot be a game-changer in China-India relations of extreme “Strategic Distrust”. The Chinese President to inject the element of “Game-Changer” in the soured and strategic deficit China-India relationship needs to make strategic comprises in its India-policy formulations by shedding its strategic arrogance and treat the China-India relationship into one of an equitable equations.

Can the Chinese President despite his wearing four top political hats in the Chinese hierarchy bring this about? I do not think so for the simple reason that on Chinese current trajectory of power ascendancy towards emerging as a superpower, there is no scope for strategic compromises especially with a contending power like India contending for the same Asian strategic space which China deigns to treat as its exclusive space.

Contextually therefore, this leaves Prime Minister Modi in a piquant strategic dilemma as to how would he be able to sell the Chinese President’s visit to India as a success without any strategic gains to India being conceded by China. Probably it was this that the Prime Minister was led to make the ‘Inches to Miles” rhetorical coinage yesterday.

Under such an existential dilemma the Indian Prime Minister needs to disabuse the Indian hype over the Chinese President’s visit by stressing that India in terms of her external relationships will henceforth be adopting a two-track strategy. One set of policies would be reserved for those countries or group of countries which are “strategically proximate” to India and further India’s national security interests. In this set, the Indian security and Indian strategic interests would be prime determinants. The other set would be countries which can contribute to India’s economic growth with no strategic expectations or strategic strings attached or implicit.

China falls into the second category and any strategic expectations from China should be shed from Indian policy formulations. For India, China at best has to be existed with as a neighbour but with whom in mind India must fast-track her military power build-up and power potential so that India is not left in a position of being subjected to political and military coercion by China.

In the above, within Asia, it is only Japan and Vietnam which are India’s true strategic partners even though they may not be able to match China’s ‘economic goodies’ for India.

- See more at: http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1616#sthash.LqARbX4R.dpuf

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