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8 February 2015

The Indian Air Force 2020 And Beyond

Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major (Retd)

Military power, as history bears out, shall always remain a very critical component of national power – without it, the progress and growth of a nation is possible only upto the point where it clashes with the ‘interests’ of another stronger nation. ‘Aerospace power’ today is perhaps the most important component of this military power. There are many reasons for this – flexibility and speed of response, mobility / transportability of national power, long reach, precision targeting, minimum fuss and reduced visibility. Aerospace power fits the bill just so perfectly! How has aerospace power attained such outstanding enabling characteristics? As they say − ‘it is in the very nature of the beast’! This nature is founded and premised on technology – the very reliability and effectiveness of aerospace power hinges upon it! The 21st century undoubtedly belongs to aerospace power, because ‘air’ and ‘space’ with their essential similarities, have come together in a synergy that has dramatically enhanced the capabilities of air power astonishingly – it has become more reliable, effective, clean, responsive, enables ‘effects-based’ / ‘parallel’ operations and creates ‘strategic’ effects, both in peace and in war! The Indian Air Force, in our national security calculus, has the onerous task to conceptualise, plan, execute and project Aerospace power – in all its hues!

The Weapon And Equipment Profile

Not all Air Forces have the capability to project aerospace power in its many hues, but the Indian Air Force – one of the finest in the world can, provided its ongoing modernization and capability building plan is executed with speed, determination, grit and transparency. And based on this modernisation plan, the force structure of the IAF in 2025 would be – about 45 combat fighter squadrons; a formidable combat-ready fleet of helicopters and transport aircraft; adequate numbers of AWACS / AEW and air-to-air refueling aircraft; a mix of modern trainer aircraft / simulators; a well-packaged fleet of UAVs / UCAVs; new generation air defence and surface-to-air missile systems to plug existing gaps in the AD grid; about 40 operational air bases with day / night / all-weather facilities to cater for all types / categories of aircraft; a robust and secure network centric warfare capability; a state-of-the-art and dynamic maintenance / logistics infrastructure; smart weapons and other force multipliers / enhancers. The hardware involved in this modernisation package is in various stages of induction and procurement – some operational, some in the pipeline, some under evaluation, some in design / development stage and some still being identified. 
Most of the platforms (fighter / transport aircraft and helicopters), sensors, other weapon systems and net-centric warfare systems are in public domain – and therefore not listed. However, the scale, scope and cost of this modernisation package is unprecedented in the IAF and indeed, in the country. Assuming that this modernisation goes through as envisaged by the year 2025 and given the 30 / 40 year life span of the modern platforms, we are already in the year 2060!
A cursory look at the IAF today would reveal that most of its inventory is undergoing some form of a transformation or the other in the modernisation process. It is either being inducted or being upgraded, being replaced or being put to use in an entirely new environment. Absorbing new technologies, whilst managing existing inventories in the throes of inductions, phase-outs and upgrades are sure to throw up new challenges. Traditional methods of employment and maintenance practices will have to co-exist with modern methods, because processes that work at varying speeds create mutual friction / interference and demand management skills of a very different kind. The IAF’s challenge in the coming years will be to put together a system which is responsive enough to absorb these changes, before the next set of changes comes along. Concepts, employment philosophies, maintenance practices and Concept of Operations will have to be continuously monitored and updated. This acquisition, absorption and employment cycle in the modernisation process of any Air Force, will always be in conflict with the operational cycle, application of force, response and counter-response! All advanced Air Forces have faced this dilemma and have overcome the shortfalls – so will the IAF!

New And Emerging Battlegrounds

With advancing technology, emerge new playgrounds of conflict – they create new vulnerabilities, create new rules of engagement and require a totally different genre of war-fighting wherewithal! These constitute strange unexplored arenas and are subject to yet undiscovered concepts and tactics – smart weapons are being replaced by ‘trojans, worms and masquerades’! These new threats and conflict scenarios are bound to create yet unknown centres of gravity and targets of a different kind. Space, cyberspace and many other arenas will form uncharted territory, add to the existing conventional ones and demand an entirely new set of concepts, tactics, expertise, skills and counter-measures. The IAF must adapt and prepare to face these and many more uncharted battlegrounds which keep emerging during the modernisation process and beyond.

The Air Warriors

While hardware is indeed important, it is converted into ‘capabilities’ by people. Air war fighting and aerospace power projection is and will remain the bread and butter of the IAF – the men and women responsible for this onerous task need to be very highly skilled and impeccably trained, after a careful selection process. In this business of air war fighting and military aviation, optimum performance usually lies very close to safety margins and this brings in the concerns of costs – both in human and material terms! The IAF should aim for greater specialisation and tailored capabilities amongst its men and women, as it absorbs newer and more advanced technologies. What sets the future apart from the present is the proliferation of a large number of specialities – where the demands on its future leadership will increase!

Leveraging Technology

The modernisation plan of the IAF opens a providential window of opportunity for the Indian aerospace industry (both private and public). Add the growing civil aviation market to this basket and an aerospace industry boom stares India in the face! If this opportune situation is addressed judiciously, pragmatically and on a level playing field for all stakeholders (the industry and the user) in the aerospace domain, the aerospace industry will leapfrog a generation ahead! The many ongoing military and civil joint venture projects under various stages of negotiation, the huge offset packages that would arise with the current defence acquisitions and the accompanying opportunities to develop and manufacture niche aerospace components (with or without transfer of technology), must be exploited to leverage the offsets and joint ventures. With the FDI now 49 per cent in the Defence sector, it clearly demonstrates a determined effort on part of the government to attract the private sector into the defence arena. The large participation of Indian private companies and a congregation of aerospace giants from across the whole wide world which will hopefully follow with this initiative, is an indication that India is the hub of aerospace opportunities today! Is this because of a perception in the aerospace fraternity that the Indian military / civil aviation sector is poised for further growth – or is it only to pursue lost opportunities of the past? Will it invite greater involvement of Indian aerospace honchos and small and medium enterprises from the private sector, or is the participation going to remain peripheral, as in the past? The answers to these questions will determine the future growth of the private sector in the Indian aerospace industry. However, this impetus by the present government to energise the Indian defence and aerospace industry, sets aside old mindsets and embarks upon a visionary path!

The Future: 2025-2060

Beyond the MMRCA, FGFA and the other cutting edge hardware, with their 40 year ‘lives’, the IAF can only crystal-gaze the weapons / equipment profile it needs for 2060 and later, because it is not easy to guess the shape and constituents of aerospace power then − would the accent shift to unmanned vehicles, to missiles; or would ‘air’ be more of ‘space’?! Technological advances have, in the past, revolutionised military affairs and are sure to do so again. However, it is quite certain that the need for ‘application and transportability’ of national power and thus for aerospace power with its enhanced capabilities in the 2060s, would always remain. Nations that lack this vital capability will either seek it, or be left far behind! In our context, aerospace power is likely to permeate the national security apparatus more intrinsically, given India’s significantly enhanced stature and responsibilities in the 2060s. The IAF may perhaps aim for greater specialisation; tailored capabilities for each occasion; an increased dependence on unmanned vehicles / missiles; and a greater accent on force enhancers. In all probabilities, the capability requirements of the IAF will largely mirror the future of aerospace power itself, though the path would invariably be influenced by advanced nations and Air Forces that are selective and seek creative variations in hardware and doctrine. In an obvious progression of aerospace power by 2060, the IAF would be operating on a global canvas and looking at the frontiers of space and outer space − in a quest to project power in the region and protect the country’s terrestrial tools already in place by then! Reaching out, surpassing limits and transgressing boundaries are innate human propensities in pursuit of power projection, resources and extending a nation’s strategic footprint. This pursuit always needs to be backed by a credible and demonstrable aerospace power capability. The IAF must remain combat ready at all times – now, in 2060 and beyond!

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