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13 May 2015

Modi’s Impending visit to China

12 May , 2015

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit China from 14 to 16 May this month. ‘Hometown diplomacy’, took President Xi Jinping to Modi’s home state when he visited India last September; it will now be Modi’s turn to visit Xian during his visit.

While ties between India and China have been steadily growing for years, it got a major boost under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has signalled his wishes to pursue a more vigorous foreign policy. Xi is the first Chinese head of state to visit India in eight years, while Prime Minister Li Keqiang made India his first overseas destination shortly after taking office last year.

This return visit by Modi in May 2015 comes in less than a year to Xi’s visit to India. He will visit Mongolia and South Korea thereafter. Modi sets foot on Mongolia’s soil after completing China visit, the first leg of his three-nation tour. And from there Indian PM would head to South Korea for his third and final leg of the tour starting 18 to 19 May.

Despite the Modi government’s effort in pushing hard for better ties with the Himalayan neighbour ever since they came to power last year on May 26, 2014. The greatest hurdle continues to be the land border dispute between the two Asian giants. Bitter experience of 1962 war continues to haunt all Indians even after 52 years of that debacle. The sense of betrayal and deep seated mistrust has not diminished in over past half a century or so. Nehru foolishly though, going against all the professional advice had blindly invested complete faith in Mao. The Panch-Sheel and the slogan of Hindi – Chini Bhai Bhai had completely mesmerised Nehru. China in return back stabbed India. The Red army swarmed into the Indian territories routing the ill equipped Indian Army ending in its worst ever modern military defeats. Chinese have since than occupied approximately 38,000 sq. kms of Indian Territory in Jammu and Kashmir illegally.

Chinese had guiled Nehru in to a fatal trap. It all started with the visit of Chou-En-Lai. He had made a quick trip to India after signing the Sino-Indian agreement in 1954.

As Mr Modi prepares for his China visit, flipping the pages of history may not be an exercise in futility. It is worth recalling what an Indian newspaper, The Hindu reported on Prime Minister Nehru’s visit to Peking (Beijing) on October 19, 1954. It said, Nehru had his first meeting with Mao Tse-tung, Chairman of the Chinese Republic, at the Forbidden City. The historic scene was recorded by a crowd of photographers. Mr Nehru arrived in the Chinese capital in the morning and was accorded a great reception at the Peking airport. Among those present to receive him were Mr. Chou En-lai, Prime Minister, and his Cabinet colleagues.

The Chinese military band struck Jana Gana Mana and the Chinese national anthem after which Mr. Nehru inspected a guard of honour. Most shops, business establishments and schools in Peking were closed for the day to enable the people to join in the reception to Mr. Nehru. Since early in the day large crowds, mostly youths in blue uniforms, began their march to the airport and lined up the route. Addressing the gathering, Mr. Nehru said that for a long time he had desired to visit China and that desire was fulfilled now. Relations had existed between India and China from ancient times and they knew each other. But certain obstacles arose and Sino-Indian relations grew less. “Once again, we have come to face each other and meet each other. History has now taken a turn. It is, therefore, necessary for us to understand each other. Our two countries are very big. We have lots of difficulties and responsibilities. To the extent we develop our relations, to that extent they will affect not only ourselves but the whole of Asia and the rest of the world. In the present-day world, there is need for peace and it should be our effort that we strengthen peace through our cooperation and friendship.

It is my hope that as a result of my visit, our relations will be strengthened and our two countries will help to establish peace.” Mr. Nehru said he had brought for the people of China the good wishes of India. “I have been in this country for only one day, but the warmth of friendliness shown to me in Canton and Hankow has touched me and I am thankful to you,” he said. Mr. Nehru, who spoke in Hindustani, was applauded at the end of every sentence.

Now after sixty years the history seams to repeat itself. On 17-19 Sep 2014, Chinese Premier Xi Jingping came to India …Now just like the Nehru, Mr Modi is paying a return visit.

Chinese had thus guiled Nehru in to a fatal trap. It all started with the visit of Chou-En-Lai. He had made a quick trip to India after signing the Sino-Indian agreement in 1954. The Chinese premier was received with much cordiality and he made repeated professions of eternal friendship with India. Even the critics of the Government in parliament and outside were cofounded and joined in general effusions of friendship and wanted to take a new look at China as a friendly neighbour.

A return visit was paid by Prime Minister Nehru the same year in October 1954. Mao Tse-tung received Nehru, the stage setting was such as to give the impression that the Indian leader was being ushered into the presence of an “august being”. The Chinese played the music Nehru loved and they were able to mesmerise him into the Dragon trap very skilfully.

Now after sixty years the history seams to repeat itself. On 17-19 Sep 2014, Chinese Premier Xi Jingping came to India and shared relaxed moments with the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Damodar Das Modi swinging together at the banks of Sabarmati, Gujarat. Now just like the Nehru, Mr Modi is paying a return visit.

Generally speaking nothing much has changed since Nehru’s visit to Peking (Beijing) in 1954. Except for a fact we as a nation carry a huge psychological baggage of a humiliating defeat of 1962, Indo – China war. This being something that still haunts every Indian and conjures cautiousness. The border dispute continues to be the greatest hurdle towards normalisation of our relationship with China.

Given our political record, unsurprisingly today Chinese economy stands at 10 trillion dollars while India’s hover at 2 trillion dollars. The gap is astonishingly just too wide to bridge easily.

But critically analysing the geo-political environment around us, a lot has changed and changed very fast indeed. Recalling what Mao said to Nehru in 1954, “Both countries were struggling for peace. They had had more or less common experiences in recent history and both countries needed peace to reconstruct their economies as both were industrially backward. The Chairman considered that India was industrially somewhat more advanced. But both countries were in this respect backward and had large populations. Industrial development had to be achieved quickly in both. Given peace, it might take China about four Five Year Plans, i.e. 20 years or so, to become an industrial country with foundations laid for a socialist economy”. Unfortunately though, I dare say that the ills of democracy have stalled an economic revolution. Given our political record, unsurprisingly today Chinese economy stands at 10 trillion dollars while India’s hover at 2 trillion dollars. The gap is astonishingly just too wide to bridge easily.

While China has been consistent in its domestic and foreign policy with well-defined strategic objectives. India on the other hand continues to wrestle with its diversity. We Indians are fully embroiled in jostling over selfish political gains scoring points over others on caste, region and religious lines. And not to miss out mentioning the un-quenching lust for wealth amongst its rulers. We appear unmindful of our environment around us and the changes it is bringing to the landscape. Strategic visioning has never been an Indian culture, as it has proved over and over again.

Sixty years later, I don’t think so there could be a major change in the wordings of the message Mr Modi will give to the press and Chinese public from that of Nehru’s quoted above. But I do hope Mr Modi will revise a bit of history before walking into the Dragon Trap. As I am sure that the Chinese would have factored into the megalomania attached to all the Modi’s foreign visits in past one year. Hence the caution is well justified.

India can ill afford to ignore the development of the “String of Pearls” by China in enhancing its geopolitical foot print.

The art would be in skirting the trap. Strategic concerns of India should thus be the overriding factor in defining the Modi’s Chinese mission. Mr Modi would definitely be mindful of today’s growing dragon’s sea power. China’s emerging maritime policy focusing on energy security is referred to as the String of pearls. A term, which takes significant functioning to ensure continuation of energy supplies from abroad in order to meet its grown and rising middle class expectation. And by obtaining secure supply lines and reduce dependency on a limited number of energy suppliers, sea transports China is minimizing dependency on Malacca strait known as Malacca Dilemma.

India can ill afford to ignore the development of the “String of Pearls” by China in enhancing its geopolitical foot print. Her efforts to increase access to ports and airfields, develop special diplomatic relationships, and modernize military forces that extend from the South China Sea through the Strait of Malacca, across the Indian Ocean may well be perceived as a threat to undermine Indian influence in this region. Since these Pearls have many features such as sea pearl, land pearl (pipelines), hard pearls (military), soft pearls (market), strategic and economic pearl (Myanmar).

Latest in this long string of these pearls, is the China Pakistan Economic Corridor linking Gawadar port in Pakistan to Kashgar in China. Beijing plans to invest $46bn in the world’s sixth-most populous country. This One-Belt-One-Road project aims to connect inner China with the Middle East and Europe is linked to $33bn worth of energy projects and coal-fired electricity plants and almost $10bn on road and rail projects.

India should leverage its geo-economic prowess in getting around the Dragon.

However Modi’s India of 2015 is not the same as that of Nehru’s India of 1954. India is often referred to as the “sleeping giant”. She has emerged as the fourth largest market in the world when its GDP is measured on the scale of purchasing power parity. And it is this inherent strength of India that makes her the most precious pearl in this region. Something the Communist China having superior capitalist skills can ever afford to ignore. India should leverage its geo-economic prowess in getting around the Dragon.

Indian economic dream envisioned by Modi alongside India’s strategic relevance will be tested at Beijing in next few days. While the rest of the world looks at this emerging statesman trying to shake the sleeping giant into a new awakening.

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