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25 August 2015

U.S. Reconsiders Its Position in Sinai

By Stratfor
August 23, 2015

The study of the Middle East is a study of conflict. And for many years, that conflict was waged in the Sinai Peninsula, a land bridge that connects Israel and Egypt. Between 1948 and 1979, those two countries fought four full-scale wars and engaged in several other smaller skirmishes. The peace treaty of 1979 largely brought those conflicts to an end and, in doing so, transformed the peninsula into a buffer zone between the two belligerents.

In 1981, the United Nations established the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) to enforce the terms of the treaty. The peninsula was subsequently demilitarized and divided into four zones, each with its own limitations on how many Egyptian and Israeli soldiers could be stationed there. Several countries, most notably the United States, also have a troop presence in these zones. In 2011 and 2012, Israel approved Egyptian requests to station more troops and military equipment in the demilitarized zone to combat increased lawlessness and militant violence in the peninsula. (In 2013, Egypt placed heavy weapons in the Sinai without Israeli authorization, which created a minor diplomatic incident.)



On Aug. 19, U.S. officials revealed that Washington may introduce changes to Task Force Sinai, the U.S. contingent of the MFO. Should those plans come to fruition, a number of options are on the table; but realistically, the United States can either increase the size and capability of the force or withdraw it entirely. What caused Washington to re-evaluate its position in the Sinai isthe proliferation of militants – namely, the Islamic State affiliate in the peninsula, which has recently escalated the intensity of its attacks. The MFO was designed to deter hostilities between two nation-states; it was never meant to defend the area from a protracted militant campaign.

Of course, the United States is not the only country with personnel and equipment in the Sinai. But if the U.S. contingent withdraws, the MFO would inevitably disband. The United States is sensitive to the fact that Egypt and Israel value what the force represents, so Washington would not draw down its forces unilaterally without at least informing its allies. However, lately the United States has expressed concerns about Egypt and Israel, questioning Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's controversial anti-terrorism law and Israel's staunch objection to the Iran deal. A leak about the possible dissolution of the MFO could be a subtle way for Washington to express displeasure to its allies, reminding them of just how important the United States is to their relationship.

Ultimately, the MFO is a symbolic international deployment. While the presence of peacekeeping troops ensures no military buildup on either side of the Sinai will go unnoticed, the MFO cannot prevent open warfare between Egypt and Israel on its own, nor effectively combat the Islamic State activity in the Sinai without help. But the elimination or degradation of the force sustaining the long-dormant border between Israel and Egypt could create tension in an already complicated relationship.
This article originally appeared at Stratfor.

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