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24 August 2017

Matthew Fisher: Imagining the unthinkable — what would happen if the U.S. attacked North Korea


Matthew Fisher

HONG KONG — What would it look like if North Korea goes to war against the United States and its allies?

For a sense of scope, the military situation is infinitely more complicated and sinister on the Korean Peninsula than it was in Iraq in 1991 and 2003. The crucial difference, obviously, is that North Korea has nuclear weapons and, increasingly, sounds as if it is willing to use them.

A retired senior American general said this week that if Pyongyang launched a nuclear attack Washington could respond with such crushing force that the country would be obliterated in 15 minutes. This is not an idle boast. If the U.S responded with nuclear force, it would quickly destroy the command, control and communications that North Korea uses to coordinate and direct its nuclear networks.

The collateral damage if nuclear weapons are involved would be horrendous in terms of northern civilians killed in the blasts, and in longer-term casualties in both Koreas and Japan. It is hard to believe the State Department, or military commanders, would ever back such an attack. But if North Korea’s nuclear threats continue, an allied response that would not start out nuclear could soon end up being so.

North Korea possesses massive amounts of short-range artillery that it has targeted on Seoul and U.S. bases nearby. According to the latest U.S. intelligence assessment, the Hermit Kingdom has also learned how to miniaturize nuclear bombs and place them inside missiles.

As a result of this rapidly emerging capability, every war-gaming scenario that involved North Korea would produce extreme dangers and, worse than that, might quickly draw China and even Russia into the conflagration.

If it comes to the unthinkable, here are the priority targets and a rough order of battle:

1. North Korea leader Kim Jong Un and the C3 systems that tie him to the military.

Stealth aircraft such as the B-2 bomber and F-22 and F-35 fighters, hundreds of cruise missiles (air, sea and sub-sea launched), nuclear-capable bombers and cyber-war weapons would all be part of an initial assault that Trump accurately predicts would be the likes of which the world has never seen before.

The U.S. might also use ballistic intercontinental missiles with conventional warheads for initial strikes. Other missiles launched from submarines offshore would offer little if any warning before they hit. The problem with using them in this way is that there would be no way for North Korea, or China, to be certain that these incoming warheads were not nuclear. This tactic might actually trigger a launch of nuclear weapons against South Korea, Japan, and U.S. bases in South Korea, Okinawa and the U.S. territory of Guam in the western Pacific, which North Korea specifically claimed Tuesday that it would hit first.

South Korean ballistic missiles are displayed on Kim Il Sung square during a military parade in Pyongyang, April 15, 2017. AFP/Getty Images

The goal in this first stage would be to kill Kim and others senior enough to give orders to attack South Korea and Japan, and prevent these orders from getting through. The U.S. Air Force and Marine Corps already have F-35s deployed to Japan that are supposed to be able to penetrate computer networks to gather intelligence and sow confusion.

2. Direct attacks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons and their manufacturing facilities, as well as the missile launching facilities.

3. Suppress North Korea’s early warning systems and air defences. These are likely a lot more limited than Saddam Hussein’s, because sanctions have been in place so long and much of North Korea’s military equipment is so old. This is a role for Vietnam-era U.S. Marines EA-6B Prowlers now operating against Russian and Syrian radars in the Middle East, as well as for EA-18s, which are the electronic warfare variant of the Super Hornet.

4. To try to halt or limit the North’s ability to wage conventional war on the South, the U.S. would want to attack the C3 used by North Korea’s conventional forces, especially its massed artillery. Again, this would involve using cyber and more traditional electronic warfare methods to interfere with the country’s ability to command these forces. Land-based U.S. and South Korean artillery, including rocket systems and conventional air power, would be brought to bear.

South Korea’s Hyunmoo II Missile system, left, and a U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, right, fire missiles during a joint military exercise at an undisclosed location in South Korea, July 29, 2017. South Korea Defense Ministry via AP

There would also be a furious search for weapons and ammunition dumps needed by any North Korean invasion force, using conventional air power and cruise missiles. Bridges, railways, and other choke points would also be hit, to try to slow down an invasion from the North.

Whether it comes to war or not, the U.S. is probably already moving more Patriot and high altitude anti-ballistic missile defence systems into South Korea (and potentially Japan) to protect cities, while also moving additional air and naval assets of every kind into the region. American and Japanese navies can be expected to move into coastal waters vessels that have the latest air defence/anti-missile systems, to try to provide as much coverage as possible for the South’s major cities, especially vulnerable Seoul.

A lot of preparations for worst-case scenarios are probably already going on. With so much at stake, it is to be hoped that there will also be high-level diplomatic talks involving North Korea, South Korea, Japan, the U.S. and China.

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