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4 September 2017

Deciphering the Taliban

by Stratfor

Afghanistan embodies geopolitics in a way that few nations can. Its breathtaking mountains, vast steppes and harsh deserts have obstructed the influence of would-be rulers since ancient times. Yet these topographical impediments have protected and sheltered so much of what defines Afghanistan today, forming zones of refuge that harbor ethnic patchworks living in defiance of easy categorization or governance. Interpreting the complexities of the human and physical terrain from the lines and colors on a map is almost impossible. It is only when gazing over the deserts and mountains from 35,000 feet that the intricacies of the country become clearer. And only by walking in the shoes of everyday Afghans can you begin to comprehend their mindset. Very quickly you learn that Afghanistan is a country that rejects easy solutions…

Afghans tell you in no uncertain terms that the jarring environment, complicated history and conservative religious beliefs — regardless of ethnicity — will make you a warrior. And as a warrior, you are compelled to resist any perceived foreign encroachment against your land and beliefs. It is this Afghan warrior culture that will ultimately delimit any proposed long-term resolution. Many people I sat with felt that a negotiated solution to the country's problems is the only plausible outcome. Time and again it was emphasized to me that the existing tribal order will continue to trump any foreigner-backed government that operates under perceived Western values. Any system of governance associated with outsiders is immediately suspect in the eyes of Afghans, regardless of intent or investment. This is in part why the Taliban's message continues to resonate and why the militant organization is so hard to eradicate. The group represents a distinct tribal order that emerged from the rural countryside and the ungoverned expanses that typify the region. The Taliban will not give up, not until they have achieved at least a stalemate in their favor. They have already endured better than anyone expected, thanks to their fluidity and comparative military resilience, their deft use of mountain hideaways and the support they receive from local communities — willingly or unwillingly given…

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