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21 February 2018

Eye on China — 16/02/2018

Ni hao! Welcome to Eye on China, a weekly bulletin offering news and analysis related to the Middle Kingdom.

I. The Lead:

Inspections and resolutions:It’s the holiday season in China with Friday being the first day of the new Year of the Dog. Ahead of the the Spring Festival celebration, President Xi Jinping carried out a series of inspection visits. These essentially offer an opportunity to interact with people and indicate areas of priority. Xi visited a military base in Sichuan Provinceinteracting with servicemen and women. While at the base, he also stepped out to look at the launch site from where the BeiDou-3 satellites were to be sent into orbit. He talked about military modernisation and also chatted via video conference with soldiers stationed at an island in the Paracels.

Also on the list were visits to several villages, including those that house the Yi ethnic minority group. During these visits, Xi spoke about his desire to “exorcise evil of poverty” and stressed on his role as merely a servant of the people. The Chinese government has promised to eliminate absolute/extreme poverty by 2020. According to the State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development, around 30 million people in the country live below the national poverty line.

The next stop for Xi was an electronics and manufacturing firm in Chengdu, where he spoke about the desire to shift from “Made in China” to “Invented in China,” i.e., a focus on high-quality manufacturing. He also spoke about focusing efforts to benefit the real economy while ensuring environmental protection.

Once back in Beijing, the president met with old comrades/senior leaders as is customary. These are essentially retired Party elite. Interestingly, Wang Qishan was not on that list. This, of course, further fuels speculation that Wang is returning to the corridors of power with a state position.

2. Taming tigers: Formal charges against former Chongqing chief Sun Zhengcai were made public this week were filed this week. He is accused of taking advantage of his position to seek profits for others and illegally accepting “a huge amount of assets”. Interestingly, the charges against Sun don’t relate to a particular time or period. Rather they span across his career, starting from his role as the man in charge of Beijing’s Shunyi district. Another big target this week was the former head of the Cyberspace Administration of China Lu Wei. Investigations against Lu began in November 2017, with the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection issuing an unusually strong statement this week. Lu, the statement says, is “a typical double-faced man” who “completely betrayed each and every important political requirement and major discipline.” Clearly alternative accommodation will have to be decided upon for elite prisoners, given that Beijing’s “tiger cage” Qincheng prison is reportedly running out of space.

3. The China Threat: FBI Director Christopher Wray caused a bit of a storm this week during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing. Discussing the threat posed by China’s intelligence and influence operations, Wray said “The reality is that the Chinese have turned more and more to more creative avenues using non-traditional collectors.” He pointed a finger at academics, students, telecom companies and so on. Meanwhile, Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, spoke about Chinese cyber-espionage and cyber-security threats.

The Chinese response was rather prompt, with the foreign ministry dismissing as incomprehensible the US’s sense of insecurity. Moreover, it’s not surprising that targeting civil society members like students has provoked some outragewithin the US. It is critical that any states seeking to counter the Chinese state’s influence activities realise the difference between being watchful and inciting racial bias. The latter simply undermines legitimacy and feeds into the CPC’s arsenal. In this context, do read: Fear of Chinese ‘non-traditional collectors’ strikes again and Xinhua’s editorial response to the “sharp power” concept.

Amid all this, the trade skirmish has continued, with China’s Ministry of Commerce saying it had found dumping of styrene imports from the US, Taiwan and South Korea. Meanwhile, US President Trump now appears to be focussing attention towards the steel and aluminium industries, talking about action against Chinese and South Korean imports. Beijing has, of course, warned against any such action, saying that it will hurt the global economy. China’s ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai has also warned against advocating confrontation. A trade war between the two would indeed be a very tricky affair, with neither escaping unscathed, as the case of the humble soybean shows. Here are a few other good reads with regard to movements on the trade front: 







II. Indian Interest:

1. Modi’s Arunachal visit: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the state of Arunachal Pradesh this week. Beijing reacted to the visit with stern words, with the foreign ministry spokesperson saying that “The Chinese government has never recognised the so-called Arunachal Pradesh and is firmly opposed to the Indian leader’s visit to the disputed area.” He added that the “Chinese side urges the Indian side to honour its commitment and abide by the relevant consensus, and refrain from taking any action that may complicate the boundary question.”

Meanwhile, here’s an interesting view on border incursions and infrastructure build-up: Are China’s border incursions only an exercise in paranoia?

III. Belt & Road:

CPEC projects and review: A report in the Express Tribune quotes an unnamed senior official from Pakistan’s National Highways Authority as saying that the CPEC’s western route is going to be completed by the end of this year along with other 11 mega projects which were initiated in 2015–16. In addition, a report in The Nation claims that three Chinese experts groups — industrial experts, energy experts of energy group and oil & gas sector experts — are expected to visit Pakistan in March to review CPEC SEZs and energy projects and consider hydropower projects. Also this week Sardar Muhammad Masood Khan, AJK president, also spoke about the progress of CPEC projects in the region. Finally, this week the first ever shipment of seafood from Pakistan arrived in Urumqi, Xinjiang. While this was being celebrated, unfortunately, the cargo arrived via air rather than any road corridor.

IV. Military Matters:

1. Hearing on PLA modernisation: The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission held a comprehensive hearing on China’s military reforms and modernisation this week. The hearing provides access to some very interesting and exhaustive testimonies for those interested. You can access it all here:

V. Beijing’s Take:

Unpacking Social Credit: In 2014, China’s State Council issued a plan to build a social credit system in the country. Since then, there have been a host of reports focussing on the surveillance aspect of the system, terming it Orwellian and dystopian. This week I had the opportunity to sit down with Hamsini Hariharan to talk about the controversial policy — its origins, implementation progress, global implications and potential comparisons with India’s Aadhar system. You can listen to the entire conversation here.

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