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18 May 2019

Scenes from the new Cold War unfolding at the top of the world

BY NEIL SHEA

FOR MOST OF human history the very top of the globe has remained out of play, too cold, too distant, and too dangerous for the kinds of intense exploitation that have reshaped other regions. But the Arctic is now warming faster than any place on earth, and its protective barrier of sea ice—which once kept commercial and military ambition in check—is melting away.

A long-range radar installation rears up from the tundra in Hall Beach, Nunavut, Canada. The radar is one of 50 unmanned surveillance stations that keep watch over North America’s… Read More

Canadian army Corporal Stewart Hickman keeps watch over two immersion heaters—devices used to melt snow and ice to make water—at an Arctic training camp in Hall Beach, Nunavut… Read More

Canadian soldiers disembark from a CC-117 cargo plane during a training mission in Hall Beach, Nunavut.

A U.S. Air Force F-16 refuels over Alaska. The fighter is part of the 18th Aggressor Squadron, a unit that plays the role of an attacking enemy—often Russian—during combat training exercises.

By punching a hole through thick pack ice, the U.S.S. Connecticut, a nuclear attack submarine, is transformed into a temporary floating platform during an exercise in the Beaufort Sea… Read More

Thick brush, deep snow, and unfamiliar gear, including snowshoes and bulky “Bunny” boots conspire against U.S. soldiers training for Arctic battles at the Northern Warfare Training Center.

U.S. Army troops practice defensive tactics at Fort Greely, Alaska. The fort is a launch site for interceptor missiles that are designed to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles—like those North Korea has said it now possesses.

A soldier waits by his radio on the tundra near Blue Fox Harbor on Banks Island in the Canadian Arctic. The soldier was part of Operation Nanook, an annual “sovereignty operation,” in which Canadian forces patrol the nation’s northern territory.

Today, the Arctic is routinely described as an emerging frontier, and many polar nations, along with a few that have no Arctic borders, are angling for access to the region’s rich stores of fish, gas, oil, and other mineral resources. By most measures, the U.S. has lagged far behind other countries in this race, including Russia, Norway, and even China. That may be about to change.

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On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke at a meeting of the Arctic Council, an international organization composed of the eight Arctic nations, plus representatives of the region’s indigenous peoples.

Frost-faced members of a Canadian aircrew head back to hot meals and showers after enduring a week of temperatures as low as -60°C during an outdoor survival course.

“This is America’s moment to stand up as an Arctic nation and for the Arctic’s future,” Pompeo said. “Because far from the barren backcountry that many thought it to be … the Arctic is at the forefront of opportunity and abundance.”

For many scientists, analysts, and native people, the rapid and severe transformations unfolding in the Arctic, including ice loss and melting permafrost, are considered negative consequences of climate change, omens of worse to come. But Pompeo recast those omens as opportunities.

Disappearing sea ice could increase trade, he told the council, by allowing cargo ships to cross the Arctic via the Northwest Passage and the so-called Northern Sea Route. Pompeo said those sea lanes could become “21s century Suez and Panama Canals,” that would “potentially slash the time it takes to travel between Asia and the West by as much as 20 days.”

Six nations—the U.S., Canada, Russia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark—have land borders above the Arctic Circle. In recent years, the receding ice has allowed increasing amounts of international shipping traffic to move between the Atlantic and Pacific. 

Pompeo’s remarks stood in sharp contrast to previous U.S. policy, which many Arctic experts have described as “American reluctance.” Until this point, the administration of President Donald Trump has seemed mostly uninterested in the region, and most previous presidents invested little there.

Under Trump, climate change and global warming have become almost unmentionable, even to the point of denial, and Pompeo used neither term in his speech. Last year, Trump even defunded a Coast Guard plan to build more icebreakers. He later reauthorized the measure, though the U.S. still has only one heavy breaker capable of sailing through into thick ice.

This fresh interest in the Arctic—Pompeo’s and the administration’s—can be traced to bold and aggressive moves by Russia and China, both of which have made significant investments in northern gas and oil infrastructure. Russia has also greatly expanded its military forces in the Arctic, becoming, by most measures, the dominant cold-weather player. And China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state,” articulating its desire for a seat at the table in polar decision-making.

Pompeo said he welcomed cooperation with both nations, and then he warned them against taking provocative actions. He criticized Russia’s military build-up as “destabilizing” and said both nations’ Arctic moves would be judged in the context of their behavior elsewhere. In particular, he mentioned Russia’s “aggressive action in Ukraine” and China’s territorial claims over the South China Sea.

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