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1 December 2019

Past Behavior and Future Judgements: Seizing and Freezing in Response to Cyber Operations


With the number of politically relevant cyber incidents continuously rising, the correct attribution of these incidents becomes crucial as wrongly attributed operations might further increase tensions between rivals. This article investigates how foreign policy elites evaluate cyber operations. It finds that attribution is often shaped by pre-​existing beliefs and perspectives. Due to such perspectives, elites are susceptible to false-​flag operations or refuse to adjust premature attributions in light of incoming information. Receiving more information about a cyber-​incident is thus in itself not enough to guarantee sound attribution. With regard to actual policy, the results reinforce the need to develop mechanisms that minimize the impact of biased judgements on state behavior. 


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