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18 May 2022

Finland, Sweden, Turkey, and NATO

ANDREW STUTTAFORD

As suspected, Turkey’s objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO were the first moves in a bargaining process (accepting new members into NATO requires the unanimous approval of all existing members), which I reckon will not be confined to Turkey (Hungary next?).

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on Sunday outlined demands for Finland and Sweden which seek membership in NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking with Turkish reporters after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin, he said that Sweden and Finland must stop supporting terrorists in their countries, provide clear security guarantees and lift export bans on Turkey.

According to Cavusoglu, Turkey was not threatening anybody or seeking leverage but speaking out especially about Sweden’s support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Ankara views the PKK as a terrorist organization.

Cavusoglu echoed an earlier statement by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan two days ago, when he said Turkey did not have a “positive opinion” about Finland and Sweden’s ambitions to join the military alliance.

Erdogan accused both countries of harboring “terrorist organizations” in his unfavorable assessment of the membership bids.

Turkey has long accused Nordic countries, especially Sweden, of harboring extremist Kurdish groups as well as supporters of Fethullah Gulen, a US-based preacher wanted over a failed 2016 coup.

Sweden, in particular, has a large immigrant community that hails from Turkey.

Many of the migrants are of Kurdish origin and some have been granted political asylum after decades of sporadic conflict between Kurdish groups and Turkish security forces.

Meanwhile, the Finns have confirmed that they are proceeding with their application, which will be put before the Finnish parliament in the next few days.

It ought, perhaps, to be remembered that Turkey has been showing some degree of support for Ukraine in recent months (Turkey’s Bayraktar drone has even won a cult following of sorts in Ukraine: For a song celebrating it — warning, rough lyrics — go here). That should be no surprise. Russia and Turkey (or before Turkey, the Ottomans) have been contesting the Black Sea region for centuries. Much of Catherine the Great’s Novorossiya (a great deal of which lies within modern Ukraine) was taken from the Ottomans or the Crimean Khanate (the relationship between the latter two was . . . complicated), and Ankara is unlikely to welcome the boost to Russian power in that area that would follow any Ukrainian collapse. To the extent that NATO membership for Finland and Sweden adds further obstacles in the way of Russian revanchism, it is in Ankara’s interest to go along with it. Even so, Turkish consent will likely come at a price.

Sweden was always likely to wait until the Finns had decided to move towards a membership application before following suit. The news on Sunday that Sweden’s Social Democratic Party (the dominant partner in the governing coalition and long an opponent of Sweden joining NATO) has swung behind support for a membership application means that such an application is now highly likely.

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