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29 July 2022

A computed estimate of Russian and Ukrainian military casulties

Zichen Wang

Key Takeaways

The casualty data of troops on both sides published by the U.S. side (mainly by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War) is unreliable.

Russian casualties are likely 22,230-30,995 by 2022-06-24. The Ukraine-published figures on Russian casualties are an overestimate of 13.4%-22%.

The casualties of Ukrainian troops are likely 11,616-12,936 between 2022-02-24 and 2022-04-16. The Russian-published data on Ukrainian casualties in this period is overestimated by 80%-100%.

The final outcome of the war is difficult to predict.

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