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8 January 2024

The World’s Biggest Risks for 2024 Are More Than Trump

Robert A. Manning

This is the seventh edition of our annual “Top 10 Global Risks,” an exercise in foresight drawn from our forecasting experience at the U.S. intelligence community’s National Intelligence Council. In our previous forecasts, we have focused on the proliferation of small wars, food insecurity, developing-country debt, and growing climate change impacts—an ongoing polycrisis that is emblematic of our times: The post-World War II global system that the United States engineered is unraveling. Amid this disorder and strife, even more signs of distress will surface in 2024.

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