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6 May 2024

Ukraine is running out of battlefield options

ARIS ROUSSINOS

Earlier this month, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrilo Budanov warned that from mid-May onwards, the country will face a battlefield situation that is “difficult” but “not catastrophic”. As Russian troops exploit February’s costly victory in Avdiivka by pushing westwards with increasing speed and success, Ukraine’s best hope is that he is correct.

While the Russian push to take the strategically important and topographically useful town of Chasiv Yar, west of Avdiivka, is developing slowly, Vladimir Putin’s troops have made a rare breakthrough around the town of Ocheretyne, pushing through longstanding defensive lines and rolling up Ukrainian defences from the flanks. Beyond Chasiv Yar, the Russian goals for this operation are likely to be the towns of Kostyantynivka, a vital regional stronghold for Ukrainian forces since 2014, and the sizeable rear base and logistics hub of Pokrovsk.

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