Stephen Bryen
US President-elect Donald Trump reluctantly met with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emanuel Macron in Paris to discuss the way forward in Ukraine.
While Trump says that he has convinced Zelensky to move ahead with negotiations with Russia, Zelensky is already wiggling on any commitments he may have made. Nor is a negotiation and ceasefire exactly what Macron wants either.
The Trump plan for Ukraine is straightforward but full of landmines. In simple terms, Trump proposes an immediate ceasefire and negotiations and expects that Ukraine will cede (some) territory to Russia. So far as can be determined, Trump has not yet talked to Putin.
Once a deal is made on territory, there will be a buffer zone of some sort, and some troops drawn from France, Germany and the UK will act as peacekeepers (which Russia almost certainly will not accept). In some fashion, Ukraine will withdraw itself from any consideration for NATO membership, probably for a period of time (anywhere from five to 20 years).
What will the Russians say? To begin with, the Russians are not likely to agree to a ceasefire as long as Ukrainian soldiers are on Russian territory. Putin, therefore, will demand their removal from Kursk.
No comments:
Post a Comment