Joshua Yaphe
After it has completed its operations in Iran, Israel will have an incredible ability to influence the future direction of the region. America can withdraw and cede control to Israel, or it can put forward a vision for the Middle East in which the United States is active and engaged. If the Trump administration simply stands by and watches the destruction take place, it will have no say in what emerges from the conflict.
Operation Rising Lion
Last night, Israel successfully carried out the first stage of a multi-level operation to decapitate Iran’s military leadership, destroy its ballistic missiles and air defenses, and demolish large parts of its nuclear program. The goal is to remove any immediate threat from Iran and establish an entirely new line of deterrence on Israel’s terms. The Israelis will likely achieve most of their tactical objectives despite the inevitable blowback from Iran.
More importantly, the events of Friday the 13th will become a turning point for an entire generation of young Iranians. They will face a wave of state-sponsored nationalistic sloganeering that barely disguises a reservoir of deep political turmoil. It will be interesting to see how they react in the coming months after the initial shock has worn off.
None of this will alter the behavior of the Islamic Republic, as I wrote back in April, at least not in the short term. Ever since the brief opening of the Khatami presidency, regime officials have sought to stifle debate and consolidate authority in the Office of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard. They fought for that political and economic high ground, and they cannot abandon it now without the entire edifice collapsing.
Nor will it change the posture of Iran’s regional proxies, who must maintain a common front of resistance against Israel in order to preserve their relevance. Their ideological commitment to standing at the vanguard of anti-imperialism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Zionism gives them the outward appearance of being capable and coherent, even though they are quietly struggling to rearm and reorganize.
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