Oliver Stuenkel
Protesters wearing masks depicting U.S. President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro take part in a protest in defence of retail employment and national sovereignty in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil on July 18.Protesters wearing masks depicting U.S. President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro take part in a protest in defence of retail employment and national sovereignty in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil on July 18. Nelson Almeida/AFP via Getty Images
Brazilians are bracing for impact. Unless a last-minute negotiated solution is reached, the 50 percent tariff imposed by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump on Brazilian imports is set to take effect on Friday, Aug. 1. If implemented, the import duties would be the highest imposed on any other nation—a remarkable development considering Brazil had gotten off lightly on Trump’s “Liberation Day” in April with a mere 10 percent tariff and had attracted little attention from the White House until recently. Thus far, Brazilian efforts to negotiate with the U.S.
government have yielded no meaningful outcomes. A bipartisan coalition of Brazilian senators recently traveled to Washington, D.C., to make their case to the Trump administration, but the chances of a compromise are growing slimmer. Irrespective of whether the tariffs will come into effect, this episode is set to fundamentally reshape the U.S.-Brazil bilateral relationship. It suggests that Brasília has lost influence in Washington to Brazilian opposition figures like Eduardo Bolsonaro, who contributed to a deep-seated hostility in the U.S.
administration vis-à-vis the Brazilian government. Furthermore, Trump’s battering of Brazil proves that he has no isolationist convictions—in fact, it is the clearest example so far of autocracy promotion. Finally, Trump’s explicit interference in Brazil will drive the public and private sectors to reduce dependence on Washington. Even if Brazil ends up making concessions, Trump’s strategy shattered U.S. predictability and reliability in Brazilians’ eyes and is bound to reduce U.S. influence in the country—and South America, if its neighbors are paying close attention.
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