George Friedman
Representatives from the United States, Russia and Ukraine held talks over the weekend in Dubai on ending the war in Ukraine. There’s evidence to suggest the meeting was considered important. Among the American representatives was Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, who tends to be invited to negotiations of significance. Much more important, this was the first time since the war began that representatives from all three nations had convened for an official visit.
Yet, in the past, any optimism over the war’s conclusion had been quickly dispelled, so optimism this time around should be tempered, maybe even banished. The primary obstacle to a settlement has been Russia’s unwillingness to end the war based on the reality on the ground – that is, to accept peace based on the (small) amount of territory it has captured. A settlement based on that reality would necessarily mean that all of Russia’s sacrifices – financial, economic and human – would be for very little. Making peace on that basis would undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s credibility.
No comments:
Post a Comment