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17 January 2026

Venezuelan and Cuban Military: A Comparative Analysis and Potential U.S. Operation in Cuba

Ernesto Alvarez

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched "Absolute Resolve," a lightning-fast operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro in under three hours. This historical event highlighted the stark contrast between the theoretical military capabilities of Venezuela and its actual combat readiness. For Cuba, which closely monitored Venezuela's swift downfall and suffered the loss of 32 intelligence officers in Caracas, a pressing question arises: how would a similar operation unfold in Cuba?

This article thoroughly examines the military capabilities of Venezuela (prior to January 3) and Cuba (as of January 2026). It reviews air defenses, aviation, armored vehicles, ground forces, and, importantly, the geographic and structural differences that would influence the outcome of a hypothetical U.S. operation targeting Havana.
Venezuelan Military Before January 3, 2026

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