Leo Keay and Robert Peters
The Heritage Foundation facilitated the tabletop exercise (TTX) TIDALWAVE II: Azure Dragon, designed to introduce nuclear escalation between the United States and China three weeks into a high-intensity conflict over Taiwan in 2030. The TTX demonstrated that a non-strategic nuclear weapons advantage, as China had in this scenario, limits the options of the opponent. Conversely, if both sides have rough parity and symmetry in their arsenals, that advantage optionality is neutralized. The TTX provided useful insights, and game data will be used to inform further large language model (LLM) simulations. Ultimately, the LLM will provide a sense of how a limited theater nuclear war might start, which nuclear thresholds might exist in similar crises, and how policymakers and defense planners can craft conflict-termination scenarios.
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