Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai
The achievements of the joint American-Israeli Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion are already fundamentally changing Iran’s strategic posture. However, several key variables are in question and can affect the operation’s results, and therefore it is appropriate to think about the future the using the methodology of Alternative Futures, and derive some understandings. This paper analyzes Alternative futures for possible evolving scenarios, for the characteristics of a continuation of the existing regime and for a different regime in Iran.
The main conclusions from the analysis: Preparations should be made now for the post-war period including plans for enforcement by force and creating the conditions required for another round (‘Rising Lion 3’). The international community should demand a real agreement – a ‘CNOHMP Deal’ that addresses the Chemical, Nuclear, Hormuz, Missile and Proxy issues. Efforts should be increased to find leaders who can run Iran with a different approach: a “Gorbachev” in the existing regime and/or a “King” in another.
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