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10 April 2026

Trump Gambled by Easing Oil Sanctions on Iran and Russia. Will It Pay Off?

Roxanna Vigil

Roxanna Vigil is an international affairs fellow in national security at the Council on Foreign Relations, sponsored by Janine and J. Tomilson Hill. Most recently, Vigil served as a senior sanctions policy advisor at the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.

President Donald Trump’s war on Iran has triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history. Around twenty million barrels of oil normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz each day—about 20 percent of global oil supply—but this critical waterway is now effectively closed. As a result, Brent crude prices have soared from around $70 to over $120 per barrel. Additionally, Gulf producers have cut production by approximately ten million barrels of oil per day as they’ve run out of storage capacity, according to the International Energy Agency.

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