Russia's accumulating setbacks in economic, military, and foreign policies are shifting the war's trajectory towards potential defeat, prompting President Vladimir Putin to intensify nuclear brinkmanship as his primary instrument for coercion. Recent Russian nuclear demonstrations include the May 12 test launch of the Sarmat (RS-28) intercontinental missile, tactical nuclear exercises in Belarus aimed at Baltic states, and a strategic forces exercise involving Yars and Sineva missiles.
These actions, timed with Putin's Beijing visit, sought to intimidate NATO, Ukraine, and assert strategic might amidst Russia's growing dependence on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), though President Xi Jinping remained unimpressed. Ukraine, however, remains undeterred, continuing long-distance strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and command centers. Putin's escalating nuclear posturing, including Oreshnik missile strikes on Bila Tserkva and Kyiv, reflects desperation and increases miscalculation risks, particularly approaching the July 7–8 NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye. Firm rejection and enhanced deterrence are deemed the optimal response.
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