The Trump Pentagon is conducting a "mini review" of U.S. nuclear strategy, which must define deterrence and assurance for an increasingly complex nuclear age. This review should avoid "mirror-imaging," recognizing that aggressive, autocratic opponents like Russia and China prioritize regime survival, military capabilities, and their defense industrial base.
The U.S. must threaten what enemy leaders value most, shaping force requirements beyond a preferred minimum. Current U.S. deterrence is weakened by obsolescence and diminishing capacity, as Russia and China modernized while the U.S. did not. The world of 2026 requires a larger, more diverse force to deter both Moscow and Beijing simultaneously, potentially by uploading reserve warheads and missiles. Post-Cold War, the U.S. neglected regional deterrence, while Russia rebuilt its tactical nuclear arsenal (2000 systems, 10:1 advantage) and China developed sizable short/medium-range systems, threatening allies in Europe and Asia. The U.S. urgently needs additional regional forces, like the proposed SLCM-N and air-launched nuclear standoff weapons, to counter nuclear coercion. Credible extended deterrence, including homeland immunization, prevents allies like South Korea, Japan, Poland, and Germany from seeking their own nuclear weapons. A holistic strategy combining strategic and theater forces is essential to deter a range of plausible attacks from Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang.
No comments:
Post a Comment