Admiral Philip S. Davidson warned in March 2021 that China was accelerating its ambition to supplant the United States, potentially seizing Taiwan by 2027. This "Davidson window" refers to Beijing's military capability to invade Taiwan, aligning with the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) modernization goal for its 2027 centennial.
However, U.S. intelligence, including the ODNI's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment and former CIA Director William J. Burns, clarifies that 2027 is a readiness target, not a fixed invasion timeline. Beijing's strategy involves "coercion short of war," utilizing diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools, such as joint blockades, cyberattacks, and information operations, to compel Taiwan into negotiations or concessions. The "Davidson window" is thus a capability window for applying pressure, not a war calendar. Ultimately, assessing the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait requires considering not just military capability, but also Xi Jinping's confidence in his military, termed the "Xi Window."
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