Fundamental Deterrence Challenges and Tailoring

National Institute for Public Policy  |  Keith B. Payne

United States nuclear and non-nuclear force postures must adapt to a bipartisan policy of tailoring deterrence to the unique characteristics of diverse adversaries. This strategic shift requires a larger, more flexible standing arsenal capable of holding various high-value, hardened point targets at risk to prevent conflict and maintain regional stability.

Historically, implementing such tailored strategies demands deep, continuous intelligence to understand an opponent's specific values, risk tolerances, and decision-making frameworks, as emphasized by Sun Tzu. However, some adversaries remain insulated from external threats due to ideological, spiritual, or personal motivations, rendering deterrence inherently unpredictable regardless of the specific military threats posed. To mitigate these limitations, the nation must integrate robust strategic defense capabilities to hedge against the very real possibility of deterrence failure. Ultimately, tailoring helps planners recognize when deterrence is unviable, allowing alternative physical control strategies to take precedence during acute geopolitical crises.

Comment

Modern deterrence frameworks must account for multi-polar nuclear dynamics. A single adversary model no longer suffices in contemporary defence planning. Planners must integrate active missile defence systems alongside offensive capabilities. This integration provides a critical safety net during unexpected escalation cycles.

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