If New Looks could kill: Russia’s military capability in 2022

James Hackett

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The New Look military modernisation process, that began in late 2008, has made Russia a far more capable military power today than at any time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. There were previous attempts to reform Russia’s armed forces, including in the 1980s and 1990s. But the lacklustre performance in the October 2008 war with Georgia, renewed political will and an upturn in finances combined to kick-start the New Look. The State Armament Programme 2011–20 proved particularly important in delivering re-equipment ambitions.

Putin’s Strategic Failure

Nigel Gould-Davies

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War is the ultimate test of a society’s resources, leadership and will. It reveals what forms of power matter and which countries possess them. War’s consequences are legion and unforeseen and, in modern times, have above all surprised those who start it.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is teaching Russia these lessons anew. At the time of writing, barely three weeks in, it was already clear that his 24 February invasion of Ukraine was a grand strategic error. This war has unleashed forces that are weakening his country’s, and his own, position, on every political front.

India’s Pralay ballistic missile: a step towards a rocket force?

Antoine Levesques

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On 22 and 23 December 2021, India tested a new surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) design, the Pralay. Antoine Levesques argues that the test marks an important step in India’s ambitions to develop more credible missile forces. But it could detrimentally lead Chinese and Pakistani decision makers to conclude India intends for Pralay to be more ‘usable’ than its other ballistic missiles.

Ukraine: The Shock of Recognition

Dana Allin

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In The Age of Extremes, Marxist historian Eric Hobsbawm reflected on the ‘exceptional and comparatively short-lived’ anti-fascist alliance of roughly 1933 to 1947. Its unity was manifest in an early product of the young American sample-survey industry. In January 1939, a Gallup poll found that, in the then still hypothetical event of war between the Soviet Union and Germany, 83% of Americans favoured a Soviet victory – a result that ‘would have amazed all US presidents before Franklin D. Roosevelt, and will amaze all readers who have grown up since the Second World War’.

The Russian Invasion, Cyber War, And Global Supply Chains

Steve Banker

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When Russia invaded Ukraine, I knew there would be impacts on global supply chains. But supply chain impacts like the rising cost of gas, or the inability of a train to cross Siberia to bring goods from China to Europe, or the increased congestion this would cause at China ports, was not the supply chain impact I feared most. What I most feared was cyberwar.

Top general warns about China's military. Here's the context

Zachary B. Wolf

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(CNN)China and Russia are bent on changing the "rules-based current global order," according to America's top general.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley's prognosis, offered on Tuesday as he asked Congress for more money for the Pentagon, is for an era where large-scale war between major powers is a possibility.

"We are entering a world that is becoming more unstable, and the potential for significant international conflict between great powers is increasing, not decreasing."

‘Tectonic shifts’: How Putin’s war will change the world

John McLaughlin

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Making predictions just as the Ukraine war delivers a series of huge surprises feels like a fool’s errand. But let’s try to peer a bit through the fog of war.

What got me thinking about this was the memory of a conversation with military historian Tom Ricks in the mountains of central Sicily a few years ago. We were there with Johns Hopkins University graduate students who were studying the 1943 Allied campaign against Germany. The fighting in Sicily had marked the beginning of the push to remove Adolf Hitler’s armies from the Italian peninsula.

The Russian Invasion, Cyber War, And Global Supply Chains

Steve Banker

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When Russia invaded Ukraine, I knew there would be impacts on global supply chains. But supply chain impacts like the rising cost of gas, or the inability of a train to cross Siberia to bring goods from China to Europe, or the increased congestion this would cause at China ports, was not the supply chain impact I feared most. What I most feared was cyberwar.

The Ukraine War Is Giving Commercial Space an ‘Internet Moment’

JACQUELINE FELDSCHER

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COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo.—Capabilities honed by commercial space companies to document the destruction inflicted by Russia in Ukraine are likely to have long-lasting effects on the industry.

Satellites have brought the world unprecedented glimpses into the brutal war, whether through commercial imagery showing the Russian destruction of a shelter clearly labeled as having kids inside, social-media videos shared via SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, or a photojournalist’s pictures from Mariupol filed through satellite phones. It’s likely these graphic dispatches from the war zone have played at least some role in the global outpouring of support and aid, including the 4 in 10 Americans who said in a March poll that the U.S. should be doing more to help Ukraine.

Hicks: Today’s Russia Problem Mustn’t Distract from Tomorrow’s China Problem

PATRICK TUCKER

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LOS ANGELES—As terrible as Russia’s war in Ukraine is, it pales in comparison to a potential fight against China, the Pentagon’s No. 2 civilian said.

The Ukrainian conflict “is not the degree of difficulty that we are looking at in terms of what we need to have to fight in the future,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks told reporters traveling with her to visit startups and technology partners in California this week. “You even see the Ukrainians asking for more and more advanced systems themselves. But, the [United States], we're very focused on how to make sure we have a really combat credible capability,” to deter China.

For a Lasting Peace, Europe Must Embrace Russia

JOHN NAGL and PAUL YINGLING

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Russia, a great power inhabited by a great people, now stands humiliated on the world stage. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a crime against peace, and his conduct of that war is a crime against humanity. Putin may be adept at poisoning opponents and jailing dissenters, but his army cannot refuel tanks or fight at night. Having failed to conquer Ukraine in a swift coup de main, Russia turned to bombing hospitals and daycare centers in a failed effort to terrorize the indomitable Ukrainian population. Putin’s aggression has been rendered impotent by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a Churchill in an OD green t-shirt.

China’s Economic Crisis and Its Foreign Policy

George Friedman

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China has reached a critical point that many countries often reach and that, however painful, is cleansing in the long term. Consider what happened to the mighty United States during the Great Depression. Tragic though it was, it cleared the way for a new economic and social model. The crisis started through optimism – a new economic dynamic emerged that was so successful it created the illusion that it was eternal. Eternity bred recklessness and thus created massive imbalances. The economy reached the limits of one model and then passed through the crucible that led to the emergence of a new one.

11 STRATEGIES OF A WORLD-CLASS CYBERSECURITY OPERATIONS CENTER

Kathryn Knerler, Ingrid Parker, Carson Zimmerman

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If you are getting started in cybersecurity operations, evolving your existing security operations center (SOC), or engaging with a SOC regularly, MITRE offers free downloads of 11 Strategies of a World-Class Cybersecurity Operations Center—both for the 20-page summary document and the full textbook. Fully revised, this second edition of the popular 10 Strategies of a World-Class Cybersecurity Operations Center includes new material and evolved thinking to bring a fresh approach to excelling at cybersecurity operations and leveraging up your cyber defenses.

Deterring China: A Victory Denial Strategy

Keith B. Payne and Matthew R. Costlow

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The United States faces a deterrence challenge wholly unlike those of the Cold War—how to deter China, as a great power, from invading Taiwan. The United States and its allies confront a leadership in Beijing that has staked its legitimacy, to a large extent, on nationalism and the related promise of incorporating Taiwan into the political structure of the mainland.[1] The CCP leadership perceives this as an existential goal and failure to achieve unification as an existential threat. Correspondingly, China has worked for decades to shift the local balance of immediately-available military power for this purpose in its favor. Taiwan is significantly less militarily capable than China; its main ally, the United States, is geographically distant, and the extent of its deterrence commitment to Taiwan is intentionally ambiguous. Similarly, most U.S. allies in the region face the same problems of geographic distance and political sensitivities of interacting with Taiwan on defense issues. Finally, China’s prospective aggression would likely be met by an “international community”—much of which is heavily dependent economically on trade with China. Under these circumstances, the United States may be able to deter China from deciding to resolve the Taiwan Question forcefully, but the challenge is severe.

Purchasing from a pariah: India’s arms-acquisition dilemma

Douglas Barrie

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Heavily reliant on Russian military technology, India finds itself in a difficult position following the invasion of Ukraine, explain Douglas Barrie and Viraj Solanki. It must assess the relative value of Russian support for its defence-industrial ambitions versus its ever-closer strategic partnership with Washington.

Non-Nuclear Weapons with Strategic Effect: New Tools of Warfare?

Fabian Hoffmann

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Non-nuclear strategic weapons remain understudied conceptually and empirically. In order to enhance the understanding of this weapons category and its implications for security and defence policy, IISS–Europe convened a hybrid roundtable with the title ‘Non-Nuclear Weapons with Strategic Effect: New Tools of Warfare?’, with roundtable attendees from Europe, North America and the Indo-Pacific, and comprised analysts from think tanks and academia, government and military representatives and industry experts. This report outlines the main findings from the event.

THE WISDOM OF U.S. MILITARY WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN

ANDREW DORIS

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The defining decision of President Joe Biden’s first year of foreign policy was the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, where America fought its longest war from 2001 to 2021.

By the end of this time, the costs of continued war outweighed any strategic or humanitarian interest the United States had left in the country. This explainer accounts for these costs then compares them to the war’s alleged benefits to show why withdrawing from Afghanistan was necessary, beneficial, and overdue.

Amid heartbreaking scenes at Kabul airport, several prominent critics argued the United States should have sustained a “light footprint” to “support American allies,” just as it does all over the world.1 After all, U.S. forces have been in Germany, Japan, and South Korea for more than 70 years.2 Should the United States have been equally patient in Afghanistan?3

Artificial Intelligence: DOD Should Improve Strategies, Inventory Process, and Collaboration Guidance

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The Defense Department believes that artificial intelligence will transform warfare, and failure to adopt AI technology could hinder national security. DOD is making organizational changes and investing billions of dollars to incorporate AI technology.

We found that DOD's AI-related strategies could be more comprehensive, such as by including full descriptions of the resources needed for developing AI-enabled technologies. In addition, DOD has not yet issued guidance that clearly defines the roles and responsibilities of components that participate in AI activities.

Fight Fire with Fire: The PLA Studies Hybrid Warfare

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Moscow’s recent escalation of its invasion of Ukraine has refocused the world’s attention on a war that began in 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its proxy war against Kyiv in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s successes in Ukraine in 2014 and the subsequent panic over Russian interference in Western democracies’ elections made “hybrid warfare,” the supposedly new form of warfare that Russia pioneered, a term that is commonly used but is often only vaguely understood.

The Chinese Communist Party’s military, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), recently sought to impart to its rank-and-file a proper understanding of hybrid warfare by publishing a series of articles in its official newspaper. The articles were not the first concerning hybrid warfare that the newspaper has published, but the series is significant because such series are rare. The series was clearly meant to be studied by the entire PLA, so it represents the most authoritative explanation of the PLA’s conception of hybrid warfare that has been openly published.

Trading in US-India data flows: Prospects for cooperation in US-India data policy

Justin Sherman

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As the Joe Biden administration and the Narendra Modi government re-convene the US-India Trade Policy Forum (TPF) after a four-year hiatus, one digital issue set remains central to challenges and opportunities in US-India trade: cross-border data flows and data policy. These issues received some attention under the Donald Trump administration, but the combination of a new US administration, key developments in Indian cross-border data flow and data policies, and rising global calls for data privacy and data localization rules make this a unique and important moment for the two powers. With leading technology sectors, strong political influence, and some of the largest economies on the planet, the United States and India have real opportunities to identify common ground on data policy and work to maximize the mutual benefits therein. Yet, key political and ideological differences—particularly around data localization and ideas of data sovereignty—will challenge the United States and India to focus on areas of cooperation with potential for tangible, near-term achievements, rather than attempting to address every data issue at once.

Preparing the next phase of US cyber strategy

Jenny Jun

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Four years after the 2018 Cyber Posture Review, the Department of Defense (DoD) will likely soon complete a review of how cyber capabilities and operations relate to the broader US military strategy. A key strategic concept in the current US cyber strategy is Defend Forward, which aims to “disrupt or halt malicious cyber activity at its source” in order to “stop threats before they reach our targets.”1 Several documents articulate this concept including the 2018 Command Vision for US Cyber Command, the 2018 DoD Cyber Strategy, and the 2020 Cyberspace Solarium Commission Final Report.2

A New Framework for Understanding and Countering China's Gray Zone Tactics

Bonny Lin, Cristina L. Garafola, Bruce McClintock, et al.

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Gray zone tactics—coercive actions that are shy of armed conflict but beyond normal diplomatic, economic, and other activities—are widely recognized as playing an increasingly important role in China's efforts to advance its domestic, economic, foreign policy, and security objectives, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. But there is little consensus to date on which tactics pose the greatest challenges to the United States and its allies and partners in the region.

RAND Project Air Force researchers developed a framework to help U.S. policymakers categorize China's use of gray zone tactics and identify the most-problematic People's Republic of China (PRC) tactics that the United States could prioritize countering. Studies of China's gray zone tactics typically have focused on specific countries, domains (e.g., maritime), or incidents. RAND analyzed trends and patterns in China's gray zone behavior by examining the country's use of different types of gray zone tactics over time against five key U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific: Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, India, and the Philippines.

ONE MONTH OF WAR IN UKRAINE: THE FIRST TAKEAWAYS

CYRILLE BRET

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One month on from the outbreak of war in Ukraine, it is unfortunately not yet time to draw our final conclusions. However, an initial provisional political stocktaking exercise is particularly necessary as the conflict is experiencing a moment of uncertainty which may lead to a tipping point. The future of Ukraine, the importance of Russia and the security of Europe are at stake and the fighting has not yet settled anything. Russia’s “special military operation” launched on 24th February had a threefold objective: to change the regime in Ukraine, to confirm Russia’s power and to show up the European Union’s weaknesses. Yet today, despite high-intensity fighting and snatches of diplomatic discussions, the fates of the three main protagonists of this war have not yet been sealed. We could even go further and consider that the four weeks of armed conflict place each of the stakeholders at a crossroads that remains uncertain.

Pakistan’s Political Crisis Is Masking a Foreign Policy Realignment

Arif Rafiq

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Addressing a security forum in Islamabad on Saturday, Pakistan’s army chief of staff, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine in no uncertain terms, describing it as an “invasion” and “aggression against a smaller country that cannot be condoned.”

These statements would be uncontroversial had they not contradicted the official position of Pakistan’s civilian government, which is in the midst of a political crisis that also involves the army. Indeed, Pakistan’s ongoing political turmoil—which has seen Prime Minister Imran Khan avoid a vote of no confidence through questionable parliamentary maneuvers, as his coalition and party fracture amid pressure from the opposition—is as much about foreign policy as it is about domestic politics.

German Industry Prepares for Worst-Case Scenario

Tim Bartz, Simon Book, Simon Hage

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You can find something from Hinrich Mählmann just about everywhere you look in Germany. His company, the Otto Fuchs Group, founded in 1910, literally delivers the things that make the country move. They include wheels and coupling systems for railroads, engine components for the aviation industry and even battery housings for electric cars. Mählmann also sells thermally insulated windows and doors through its subsidiary Schüco. The supplier has revenues of just under 3 billion euros annually and employs 10,000 people.

Why the destruction of Ukraine’s churches matters

Christopher Howse

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One small, deadly incident in the Ukrainian war proved memorable because it involved the ordinary things of life. A mother and two children trying to leave the town of Irpin on foot on 6 March died from Russian shelling. Their suitcases fell beside them and, miserably, a pet dog carrier. They lay on an ordinary road that could be in Surrey, on the steps of a memorial to Soviet dead from the second world war.

The Russo-Ukraine War: Phase Two

Lawrence Freedman

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On 24 February as they began their invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces began shelling Mariupol, a port city of over 400,000 inhabitants. The next day they began to advance to its outskirts. By 2 March the city was surrounded and the shelling had become routine and deadly. Soon reports came in of schools and hospitals being hit. On 5 March came the first attempt to evacuate people under the auspices of the Red Cross: a convoy was organised but it was unable to escape because, despite Russian promises, the shelling did not stop. This was to be repeated many times. The lives of the residents became progressively more miserable and dangerous, with shelters, including one under a theatre, being targeted as well as homes. Some 90 percent of the buildings are now said to have been destroyed. By late March the Mayor was reporting that 5,000 civilians had been killed.

Why Cyber Holds the Entire World at Risk

Danielle Jablanski

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“Cyber” as a field of study is riddled with poor analogies as takes on cyber strategy and statecraft continue to get hotter with no boiling point in sight. With the dawn of digitization, scholars and pundits alike began to predict a multipolar world in which digital interdependence of society and economy would hamstring great power competition. The truth is it only makes it uglier.

The Buzzards Are Circling Around Putin

George Friedman

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As we consider how the war in Ukraine will end, we must first understand how it began. Russia invaded for geostrategic reasons – having Ukraine as a buffer state safeguards Moscow from invasion from the west – and for economic reasons, which have often gone overlooked. The transition from the Soviet Union to the Russian Federation wasn’t exactly lucrative. It may have increased total wealth, but Russia remains a poor country. Its gross domestic product ranks just behind South Korea’s, a respectable placement but hardly where a superpower should be. And in terms of per capita GDP, Russia ranks 85th, nestled between Bulgaria and Malaysia.

Putin’s War on Ukraine Is Spreading Global Shockwaves

Frida Ghitis

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Just before midnight on Monday, Peruvian President Pedro Castillo appeared on television to declare an unprecedented state of emergency for Lima, the capital. All the city’s residents, he said, were to stay indoors for 24 hours, beginning just two hours after his announcement. The controversial decision, which would later be rescinded after protesters ignored it, came in response to widespread demonstrations by truck drivers and transportation syndicates against the spike in fuel prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Why Tackling Corruption Is So Urgent—and So Difficult

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The world is constantly reminded that corruption knows no geographic boundaries. In South Africa, former President Jacob Zuma was recently jailed for refusing to testify before an anti-graft commission and remains embroiled in several other court cases involving corruption allegations that helped remove him from power. In Malaysia, former Prime Minister Najib Razak was found guilty and sentenced to 12 years in prison in 2020 over the fraud and embezzling charges that precipitated his downfall, a verdict that was recently upheld by a court of appeals. A money laundering investigation launched in Brazil in 2008 expanded to take down a vast network of politicians and business leaders across Central and South America over the course of the following decade. And former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration saw a steady stream of officials who were forced to resign after being caught using their offices for private gain.

The Price of Hegemony

Robert Kagan

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For years, analysts have debated whether the United States incited Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interventions in Ukraine and other neighboring countries or whether Moscow’s actions were simply unprovoked aggressions. That conversation has been temporarily muted by the horrors of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A wave of popular outrage has drowned out those who have long argued that the United States has no vital interests at stake in Ukraine, that it is in Russia’s sphere of interest, and that U.S. policies created the feelings of insecurity that have driven Putin to extreme measures. Just as the attack on Pearl Harbor silenced the anti-interventionists and shut down the debate over whether the United States should have entered World War II, Putin’s invasion has suspended the 2022 version of Americans’ endless argument over their purpose in the world.

The Next Sino-Russian Split?

Odd Arne Westad

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From within a war, it is hard to think about what comes next. Rarely has this been more true than for the current Russo-Ukrainian war. Our thinking is necessarily clouded by the suffering that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression has inflicted on the people of Ukraine. It is also hindered by lack of experience with this kind of warfare. Together, these make it hard to imagine where we go from here, especially amid the dangers of the era of great-power rivalry that this invasion has brought into being. It will be a time of intense competition and menace—much less stable than the Cold War and much riskier than any time since that conflict ended. Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling has already shown how high the stakes are in what comes next.

The US will be the ultimate winner of Ukraine’s crisis

JANAN GANESH

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From 2026, if all goes well, liquefied natural gas will arrive via tanker on the shores of northern Germany, will pour into cryogenic storage vats set to minus 160C, and then “re-gasify” before coursing through the grid in place of Russian imports. Germany has no LNG terminal at present. Within 72 hours of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it expedited the construction of two. Of the exporters that stand to profit, the US is nearer than Australia and, unlike Qatar, won’t leave Berlin exposed to another erratic autocracy.

Germany has no LNG terminal at present. Within 72 hours of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, it expedited the construction of two. Of the exporters that stand to profit, the US is nearer than Australia and, unlike Qatar, won’t leave Berlin exposed to another erratic autocracy.

North Korea's Cyber Capabilities

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Over the past few years, North Korea has resorted to cyber attacks to affect its adversaries with increasing scale and capacity. This trend is alarming given that advanced cyber warfare capabilities could increase North Korea’s asymmetrical advantage and provide alternative means of escalating a crisis. The March 20, 2013 cyber attack on major South Korean banks and broadcasting agencies served as a wake-up call for South Korean policymakers, since North Korea not only clearly demonstrated Pyongyang’s intent to utilize cyber attacks as a tool during a crisis, but also showed significant improvement in capabilities from earlier attacks that resorted to DDoS attacks on websites.