16 March 2022

Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Putin’s likely courses of action

Maj Gen PK Mallick, VSM, (Retd)

Russian air and land forces are pressing into Ukraine from three sides. The three-way Russian advance is being contested but moving ahead. A US senior defence official told reporters in Washington on Thursday, “It is likely that you will see this unfold in multiple phases. How many, how long, we don’t know. But what we are seeing are initial phases of a large-scale invasion. Thus far, we have seen an advance on what are essentially three main axes of assault. One is northward from Crimea toward Kherson; another southward basically from Belarus to Kyiv; and the third from Belarus southwest toward Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. These three axes are what we believe, clearly designed to take key population centers. I’m saying they’re making a move on Kyiv…They have every intention of decapitating the government and installing their own method of governance. We see the heaviest fighting in and around Kharkiv, right now

1 comment:

Col Prabir Sengupta, VSM said...

I think the 'end-state' could possibly be as under:
One. The first aim has been achieved where it has forced the present govt to retract its overtures to be part of the NATO.
Two. To install a puppet govt OR Balkanize Ukaraine in Eastern (Pro-Russia) and the Western Region.
Three. Provide a safe N-S corridor (through Donbas Region) for easy mov to and from Black Sea to mainland Russia.