Seth Frantzman
Key Points – The Iranian regime’s “extreme hubris,” born from decades of surviving revolution, a grueling war with Iraq, and successfully sponsoring regional proxies, led it to fatally miscalculate the strategic situation prior to Israel’s devastating June 13th strike.
-Confident in its missile and drone capabilities, Tehran failed to recognize that its strategic position had severely weakened in late 2024 after its key allies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria, were neutralized.
-Believing it could continue to act with impunity, Iran sleepwalked into a direct conflict with a technologically superior Israel, leaving its complacent military leadership and vulnerable infrastructure exposed.
How Iranian ‘Hubris’ Led to a Devastating War with Israel (Op-Ed)
In January 2024, Iran was riding high. Its proxies and allies in the region were fighting a multi-front war against Israel. Hamas in Gaza had carried out the worst mass terror attack against Israel in history just three months prior. Hezbollah was targeting Israel daily from Lebanon. The Houthis in Yemen were attacking ships and threatening to cut off Israel from the Red Sea. They were also attacking Israel with drones and missiles.
Iraqi militias, backed by Iran, were also targeting Israel with long-range drones. A year and a half later, Iran is reeling from Israel’s June 13 surprise attack. Iran’s air defenses have crumbled. Its ballistic missiles appear to be running out. How did it fail so badly to understand the changing situation?
Iran in History
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